Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22eaf9525063ee91cc2cc68945c7798ec160f8bf303d915e040e164f80468cfe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $431,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $244,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	23,065$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	10,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	4,487$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.79	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	4,006$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.87	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	3,246$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	12c	2,420$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.02	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	11c	2,238$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.14	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	9c	2,032$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,957$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.98	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	12c	1,900$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	11c	1,779$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.73	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	14c	1,592$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	15c	1,400$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,300$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	13c	1,154$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	11c	1,136$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.37	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	10c	1,111$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,086$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	1,017$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.91	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	974.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	10c	887.84$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.78	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	3c	800$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	10c	784$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.02	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	11c	753.03$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.06	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	14c	719.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	13c	709.69$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.26	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	12c	700$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	4c	649.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	579.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	7c	546.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f7c…141dbacked Yes	13c	461.54$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes	13c	457.86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	6c	427.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	14c	393.64$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	11c	308.08$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	304.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	13c	303.08$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	11c	299.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8d…3d98backed Yes	9c	220.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	5c	215.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	214.49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28f…7348backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	9c	170$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6438…fadbbacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	12c	161.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	156.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe71d…cc61backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	13c	130$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	10c	114.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes	16c	106.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	13c	106.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14dd…9665backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f3…ebbbbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	26.3%26 W · 73 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes	13c	90$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event