Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e935850a1b764d61c414eefe4bbd74a6295b8ba892dc8bf5a21356d33388627

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $886,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $492,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $886,443 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	75,896$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.9	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	37,768$1,591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,591.39	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	16c	24,381$4,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,021.66	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	16c	15,833$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	14,867$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.11	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	14,818$1,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,578.03	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	10c	13,296$1,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,394.88	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	9,026$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.12	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	9,009$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	12c	8,544$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986.95	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…9e6fbacked Yes	0c	7,536$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	1cpaid	+395.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	10c	6,924$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.49	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	20c	6,214$1,215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214.82	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	8c	6,200$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.2	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	11c	6,121$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.36	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes	9c	5,997$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	5,723$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.22	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	17c	5,648$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.02	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	4,919$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.26	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	8c	4,010$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.73	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	11c	3,988$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.6	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	5c	3,960$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.54	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	16c	3,595$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.27	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe813…97f5backed Yes	8c	3,442$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	3,271$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	3,149$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.65	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	13c	3,043$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.93	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	3,025$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2288…5844backed Yes	5c	3,015$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	12c	2,835$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.58	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	16c	2,540$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.23	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	9c	2,501$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.65	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	20c	2,484$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.16	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	7c	2,465$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.23	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	13c	2,463$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.83	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Yes	5c	2,448$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	14c	2,259$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.9	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	22c	2,252$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	5c	2,222$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.84	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	2,207$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	12c	2,188$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.94	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	15c	2,180$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.23	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	10c	2,160$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.59	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8835…7d7ebacked Yes	20c	2,118$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	5c	2,103$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.33	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	11c	2,097$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,097$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	15c	2,067$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	1,957$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	1,797$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.49	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	19c	1,769$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.55	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	8c	1,763$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.92	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7950…1d42backed Yes	19c	1,737$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	21c	1,613$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.19	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	1,601$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.44	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	2c	1,600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	18c	1,477$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.95	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed Yes	7c	1,342$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	1,301$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.23	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	10c	1,257$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.09	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	1,249$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	7c	1,248$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.33	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	1,245$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.21	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	18c	1,220$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.78	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	10c	1,185$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.56	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	1,185$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfccc…c862backed Yes	16c	1,163$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	1,127$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.61	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	1,123$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.97	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	3c	1,102$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed Yes	5c	1,095$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	16c	1,085$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.43	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	10c	1,077$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	1,057$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.55	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	1,051$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	1,047$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	9c	1,044$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.79	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	11c	1,033$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.55	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	5c	1,022$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	18c	1,000$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	14c	1,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.8	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	11c	1,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	1,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dad…9f19backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	16c	999.45$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.11	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	11c	999.35$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.38	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	991.28$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.05	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	5c	975.24$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	904.75$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…31f0backed Yes	18c	900$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	8c	890.37$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.74	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	9c	870.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	18c	813.34$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.84	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	13c	810$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.51	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	11c	804.85$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	3c	800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	8c	800$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.2	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	9c	795.25$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.53	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	13c	774.14$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.32	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event