Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab67ff9797a993e75e86c624f97cd2ef16a74806b0b73c891954ec899a9afddd

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $608,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $336,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	50,742$5,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,144.3	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	35,937$2,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,374.52	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	10,650$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.72	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	7c	9,646$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.12	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	6c	9,088$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.68	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	8,000$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,349.54	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	6,526$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.47	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	6,299$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.7	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	5,939$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	16c	5,768$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	5,452$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	5,050$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.7	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	4,190$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	3,974$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.73	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes	2c	3,947$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	11c	3,619$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.85	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	11c	3,034$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.26	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7147…9a01backed Yes	3c	3,015$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	14c	3,008$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,795$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.28	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	10c	2,649$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.66	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	5c	2,640$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.17	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	5c	2,582$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.48	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8835…7d7ebacked Yes	17c	2,488$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	6c	2,424$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.27	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,408$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	2,283$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.63	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,126$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.92	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	2,074$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.87	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	7c	2,013$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.47	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	2,000$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.16	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	15c	2,000$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,998$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.18	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,966$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,919$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.76	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Yes	3c	1,876$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x892c…46cfbacked Yes	3c	1,874$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	3cpaid	+177.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	1,857$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.43	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	3c	1,819$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	3c	1,795$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	10c	1,788$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.87	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	10c	1,688$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.49	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	1,678$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	1,675$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	3c	1,602$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.34	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea1…5c7cbacked Yes	8c	1,586$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.13	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	1,573$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	10c	1,572$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.33	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b6…fb1cbacked Yes	3c	1,484$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	5c	1,456$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	1,436$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.67	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…126fbacked Yes	3c	1,389$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+78.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	1,300$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.1	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dd…dbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,283$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes	2c	1,273$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab94…ee1ebacked Yes	3c	1,205$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	1,147$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	18c	1,130$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.01	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,111$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e5…e7c8backed Yes	12c	1,100$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee3…023abacked Yes	16c	1,077$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.31	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ab…53eebacked Yes	12c	1,050$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	10c	1,038$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,001$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	16c	1,000$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.5	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	9c	1,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	999.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	16c	999.99$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.92	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	999.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	2c	976.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	920.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	12c	915.46$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.43	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	876.46$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.52	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	13c	869.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	11c	837.84$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.23	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	3c	825.52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7950…1d42backed Yes	4c	825.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	6c	813.34$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.75	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	797$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	11c	770.97$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.66	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	762.02$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece9…81ffbacked Yes	8c	761.73$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	10c	754.13$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e63…df2bbacked Yes	14c	727.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	4c	720$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.22	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc40…c795backed Yes	9c	719.14$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	17c	716.08$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.87	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e6…9e49backed Yes	6c	705.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a9…ce37backed Yes	4c	700$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+136.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes	3c	694.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	9c	674.79$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	661.01$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11a…e5b6backed Yes	3c	660.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe7…e872backed Yes	3c	660.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	8c	645.52$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	13c	641.62$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.7	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa594…006cbacked Yes	10c	627.97$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.56	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event