Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf136b6353b58b8d425263b34d998647332cf496e4412f324ee02f78348bce69e

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $251,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $168,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,790 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	18,488$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	7,503$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	2,100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	3c	1,600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a20…8c94backed Yes	2c	1,400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	1,333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	1,181$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.25	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	571.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	506.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdade…165fbacked Yes	7c	221.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event