Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3437a0a9e823a22f0c517a4485f8fcacd5ca1d1a7faaa1ebe688641e33a4edc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $483,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $323,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1780…1260backed Yes	0c	46,142$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.91	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…31c9backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	16,597$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	2c	10,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	12c	6,322$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	5,631$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	3,874$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,574$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.83	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,192$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.95	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	6c	2,323$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.12	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	10c	2,038$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	1,783$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.57	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,737$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes	11c	1,490$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.9	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	1,400$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…bcf1backed Yes	1c	1,378$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	12c	1,300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	1,250$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	8c	1,234$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.72	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	8c	1,111$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	2c	1,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	1,044$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,032$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	999.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	8c	999.82$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.87	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	915.39$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.39	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	886.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	6c	883.38$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	10c	699.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.74	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	6c	671.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	621.03$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.81	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	3c	599.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	503.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	6c	470.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	10c	425$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	9c	408.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239a…8e55backed Yes	6c	396.92$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	8c	391.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	11c	369$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	12c	343$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	12c	340$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	6c	337.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	12c	333.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	6c	322.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d70…f5bbbacked Yes	7c	303.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2ce…82c3backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	5c	299.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	5c	299.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86d…de7fbacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed Yes	7c	272.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	10c	266.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	5c	255.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	250$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	8c	236.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbf8d…3d98backed Yes	8c	236.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b76…31f3backed Yes	6c	233.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	214.29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x999e…d166backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	7c	185.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	11c	184.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	10c	142.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa594…006cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event