Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd536211d588189ec7bd06f73217fed99910c28bf4c0db1e9e27537d48d7b2b3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $805,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $805,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 30,300$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.95 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 29,565$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,611$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 13,654$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 12,797$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +177.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,621$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…1aeabacked Yes | 4c | 5,208$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 5,116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes | 6c | 5,026$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 93 | 10.8%10 W · 83 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,651$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,605$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 10c | 4,051$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.49 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,927$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 118 | 5.1%6 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 7c | 3,923$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.58 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 3,674$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 3,402$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 5c | 3,368$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.76 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,046$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 3,034$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 2,993$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 8c | 2,797$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,763$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 51 | 2%1 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…a787backed Yes | 1c | 2,717$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 296 | 8.1%24 W · 272 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 9c | 2,431$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 8c | 2,091$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 158 | 12%19 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…02edbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 1,911$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,768$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…01fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,727$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 206 | 8.7%18 W · 188 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Yes | 12c | 1,633$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 1,403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 7c | 1,239$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe572…6241backed Yes | 9c | 1,212$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,185$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece9…81ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1780…1260backed Yes | 7c | 1,054$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 10c | 1,033$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a06…160abacked Yes | 10c | 1,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 999.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes | 10c | 993$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes | 11c | 905.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +205.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 8c | 853.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes | 1c | 834.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 4c | 803.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 2c | 581.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 2c | 569.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 22.2%22 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…fd52backed Yes | 4c | 536.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…0793backed Yes | 12c | 515$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 505.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0927…6486backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 145 | 15.2%22 W · 123 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…f88cbacked Yes | 10c | 497.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 9c | 489.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes | 7c | 440.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…5cffbacked Yes | 4c | 435$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 425$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 9c | 408.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 4c | 401.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…f5bbbacked Yes | 10c | 353.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 9c | 340.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 336.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 89 | 9%8 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52d…fa66backed Yes | 9c | 319.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 9c | 316.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe50…d592backed Yes | 11c | 311.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…cbdfbacked Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 291.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes | 8c | 288.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…0f16backed Yes | 5c | 286.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 475 | 10.5%50 W · 425 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 9c | 211.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…a441backed Yes | 8c | 195.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…aba5backed Yes | 11c | 182.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…5199backed Yes | 6c | 170.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…f124backed Yes | 12c | 167.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…4e5cbacked Yes | 10c | 151.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e18…afc3backed Yes | 8c | 149.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Yes | 8c | 139.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 9c | 136.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 16%29 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes | 8c | 133.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…4630backed Yes | 9c | 122.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed Yes | 12c | 112.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 100.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.