Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf728fd8d898619240517f7033cedaa6c7dda0421088745cbeaa087b69ab5cd

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $353,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $237,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	0c	66,067$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.07	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x923f…6997backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	6,431$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	13c	3,100$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.2	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	5c	2,919$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	2c	2,478$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,325$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.66	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	2,204$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	15c	2,132$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.32	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	13c	2,126$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.07	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	1c	2,018$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,639$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	14c	1,603$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.38	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	1,600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,550$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	16c	1,400$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	12c	1,111$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…592fbacked Yes	2c	1,022$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	14c	999.99$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	14c	999.19$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.39	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b76…31f3backed Yes	12c	923.94$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	876.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	13c	810.03$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.3	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	6c	800$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	15c	758.96$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.43	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	2c	741.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	664.45$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	6c	662.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.63	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	16c	644.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	618.66$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ba…d547backed Yes	13c	599.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	11c	534.25$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	14c	500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.09	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	15c	499.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes	16c	468.75$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c71…a3bcbacked Yes	15c	444.3$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	12c	326.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	9c	320$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ce…a8b2backed Yes	16c	313.9$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3994backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	16c	287.5$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d70…f5bbbacked Yes	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes	13c	249.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	14c	240$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5205…8c98backed Yes	14c	240$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	14c	235.71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	222.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	16c	210$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f22…f473backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb28f…7348backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	12c	199.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.58	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	199.5$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	12c	182.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	15c	174.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.11	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71d…cc61backed Yes	12c	172.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes	16c	161.13$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.54	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…146fbacked Yes	13c	160$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd1…62bfbacked Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+84%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e18…afc3backed Yes	15c	153.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	141.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	12c	135.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	15c	131.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	127$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f53…49b0backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3d…cbdfbacked Yes	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	12c	110$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a8…8f00backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…c198backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5450…bff8backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event