TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Dolphins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dolphinsof Commanders, Dolphins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,509,343
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,800,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,509,343 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 950 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Commanders43c1,129,431$488,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488,729.517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Dolphins57c702,003$400,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,881.292050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Dolphins56c401,803$225,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176,666.9513843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Dolphins49c222,788$109,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,342.8430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Dolphins57c151,450$86,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,123.53135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Commanders46c148,004$68,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,768.5786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Commanders43c100,000$43,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,00016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Dolphins56c75,716$42,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,124.4253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Commanders43c70,000$30,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,10019553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Dolphins56c61,589$34,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,113.8220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Commanders45c55,982$25,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,143.368747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Dolphins57c54,410$30,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,496.431540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Commanders44c50,730$22,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,350.4119645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Commanders44c45,000$19,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,799.995236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Dolphins56c44,135$24,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,419.59580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Dolphins44c43,233$19,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,180.2811168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Dolphins59c42,128$24,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,399.9811643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Dolphins55c41,628$23,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,566.325453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Commanders35c40,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Commanders44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,6002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Commanders43c38,821$16,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,692.871,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Dolphins53c38,486$20,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,279.413070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Dolphins55c38,012$20,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,082.952470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Dolphins56c35,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,40010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed Commanders56c27,755$15,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,464.141118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dolphins56c26,081$14,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,500.0675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Dolphins56c26,000$14,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,44016545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Dolphins57c23,088$13,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Dolphins60c21,978$13,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,730.363043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Commanders50c20,300$10,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,15010061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Commanders20c19,163$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.710026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Dolphins56c17,369$9,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,642.3630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Commanders44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Commanders44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Commanders44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9211649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Commanders69c14,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Dolphins56c14,127$7,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,215.791353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Dolphins57c14,035$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,035.095464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Dolphins43c13,919$6,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,876.586965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Commanders43c13,482$5,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,827.0424053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Dolphins78c12,940$10,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,87914349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9792…0812backed Dolphins57c12,652$7,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick67cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Commanders42c12,355$5,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,188.985855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins56c12,000$6,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,32051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Commanders44c11,224$4,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9904546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Commanders44c10,500$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6204944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Dolphins56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4003351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…1facbacked Commanders0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Dolphins50c9,943$5,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,936.1531848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Dolphins55c9,649$5,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,342.071154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b19…30aebacked Dolphins56c9,150$5,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x995e…746cbacked Commanders44c9,100$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…d943backed Dolphins56c9,100$5,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x554e…1cddbacked Commanders44c9,100$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fa…f205backed Commanders44c9,050$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad0…a24ebacked Dolphins56c9,050$5,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Dolphins57c8,737$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,756.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dolphins41c8,471$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,986.1420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Dolphins56c8,212$4,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.3817648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Dolphins60c8,150$4,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.1211254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Dolphins57c7,941$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,440.6414951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Dolphins51c7,849$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.4410434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Commanders43c7,674$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3006459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Dolphins60c7,407$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,962.882343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Commanders67c7,000$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6901973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Commanders44c7,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0804134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf683…6c60backed Commanders44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Commanders44c6,687$2,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Dolphins38c6,600$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.0114438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x478d…9ea9backed Dolphins56c6,500$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Commanders44c6,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86050%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Dolphins57c6,468$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.422638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Commanders53c6,184$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.549944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Dolphins57c6,162$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.9413142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Commanders45c6,156$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7705549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Dolphins57c5,500$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Commanders49c5,200$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,54828447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Commanders44c5,193$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2851428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Dolphins56c5,191$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.59359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders46c5,154$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.3926547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0931…c034backed Commanders34c5,071$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Dolphins56c5,042$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.2844652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Dolphins65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7506100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dolphins58c4,898$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.3831056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Dolphins64c4,650$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.0850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Commanders73c4,575$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3332347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dolphins70c4,525$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.5231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Dolphins75c4,523$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Commanders44c4,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9808845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Dolphins41c4,456$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Dolphins55c4,444$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins57c4,444$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.9234349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Dolphins57c4,217$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c8…f18dbacked Dolphins57c4,217$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5aa…a24bbacked Dolphins57c4,217$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Dolphins58c4,187$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.5418140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Commanders43c4,162$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.6653253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Commanders35c4,150$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.3323850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Dolphins64c4,139$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.229952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Commanders43c4,130$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.2514945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.