NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d382ece9e4ec5a8c494f8db6991215812f0500404fc9d4ebe055efec22f53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Over | 53c | 12,000$6,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,304.99 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 49c | 7,110$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,628.04 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 4,303$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.14 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 2,214$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.28 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.89 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 53c | 1,410$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.18 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 65c | 1,129$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.11 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 930.31$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.46 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Under | 48c | 781$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…88f3backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 370.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.97 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 48c | 207.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Under | 49c | 204.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 50c | 178.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 146.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 145$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…6939backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 63c | 43.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…9c6abacked Under | 48c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5this page
- Commanders vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.