NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd528cfc2e71d444a61deea8df95ca58dad5ea0c8865fb8bb1ac55a30d53a628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Dolphins, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $413,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Commanders | 58c | 102,852$59,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,938.69 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Dolphins | 41c | 99,509$41,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,203.67 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Commanders | 60c | 60,000$36,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,000 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Dolphins | 41c | 25,000$10,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,249.98 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Dolphins | 40c | 20,178$8,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,071.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Commanders | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,199.99 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Dolphins | 41c | 19,547$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Dolphins | 43c | 13,333$5,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,668.02 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 41c | 6,543$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.34 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 61c | 5,897$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Commanders | 58c | 4,966$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.52 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dolphins | 39c | 4,897$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Dolphins | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Commanders | 58c | 2,000$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.33 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Dolphins | 42c | 1,300$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dolphins | 37c | 1,040$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.69 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dolphins | 42c | 843.45$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.25 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 58c | 737.14$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.57 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Dolphins | 43c | 700.02$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Commanders | 59c | 680.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.34 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 57c | 599$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Dolphins | 39c | 549.77$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Commanders | 61c | 519.77$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.71 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Dolphins | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed Dolphins | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Dolphins | 42c | 287.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders | 54c | 245.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dolphins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Commanders | 56c | 222.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Commanders | 58c | 167$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Dolphins | 33c | 155$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…39c7backed Dolphins | 46c | 149.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Dolphins | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…81f9backed Dolphins | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Dolphins | 42c | 90.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Commanders | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Commanders | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Dolphins | 41c | 60.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dolphins | 44c | 60.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Dolphins | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Dolphins | 24c | 54.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Commanders | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Dolphins | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Commanders | 59c | 33.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)this page
- Commanders vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.