AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94890f30f42d18b1035027236713a1fa54c363efdf01d4f34c485f575e1f7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 10c | 8,222$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.62 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 7c | 6,691$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 11c | 6,148$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.8 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed No | 10c | 4,845$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 7c | 4,699$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.93 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 8c | 4,609$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.44 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed No | 13c | 3,943$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 8c | 2,154$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 2,025$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 1,900$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 9c | 1,876$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 11c | 1,740$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,508$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 29c | 1,482$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.01 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked No | 61c | 1,383$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 1,349$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 8c | 1,336$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,327$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…4302backed No | 57c | 1,163$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 4c | 1,162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 1,123$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 1,120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed No | 70c | 1,104$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…48c3backed No | 61c | 899.67$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…4ae5backed No | 9c | 884.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 738.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf2…77d6backed Yes | 32c | 606.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 62c | 549.98$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked No | 7c | 505.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…6e50backed No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 34c | 457.33$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed No | 14c | 449.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 28c | 449$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 75c | 444.48$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked No | 25c | 406.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed No | 12c | 337.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…afe5backed Yes | 34c | 322$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 69c | 321.62$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 10c | 300.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 65c | 257.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 8c | 240.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 6c | 237.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Yes | 7c | 237.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +165%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 60c | 235.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 5c | 216.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…cc02backed No | 77c | 207.95$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed No | 17c | 204.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…48e4backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…1b28backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…509fbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked No | 77c | 181.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d6a0backed Yes | 80c | 180.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 24c | 169.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked No | 10c | 165.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 60c | 164.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 60c | 163.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 46c | 163.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…b0eebacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc290…bc01backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked No | 78c | 133$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 124.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 116.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 36c | 100.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…60a4backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 79.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed No | 77c | 70.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…0b89backed No | 77c | 64.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 18c | 55.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 34c | 51.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…a3a1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…5465backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…555dbacked No | 65c | 45.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…8460backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…a1dbbacked No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a3…f1dcbacked No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…e354backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a1…6462backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…54f0backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…05f3backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7e…61e3backed No | 73c | 22.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…9a83backed No | 72c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a5…1f80backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…44e2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?this page
- Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Neon - Money Talks be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.