TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48af…89ccbacked No10c8,222$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.628038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bc8…a8edbacked No7c6,691$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.481241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No11c6,148$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.86434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc92d…2339backed No10c4,845$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No7c4,699$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.936453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No8c4,609$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.444628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed No13c3,943$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No8c2,154$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1647219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No10c2,025$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20810723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No5c1,900$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.410426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No9c1,876$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.111836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No11c1,740$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.072560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c1,508$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.771,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No6c1,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.976150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No29c1,482$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.018041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c48…056fbacked No61c1,383$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No6c1,349$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.842110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No8c1,336$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.561936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+133.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c1,327$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c5…4302backed No57c1,163$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No4c1,162$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No14c1,123$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.115111.8%6 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c1,120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed No70c1,104$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefa1…48c3backed No61c899.67$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8867…4ae5backed No9c884.18$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No11c738.62$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5520418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf2…77d6backed Yes32c606.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No62c549.98$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…d81fbacked No7c505.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ca…6e50backed No4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No34c457.33$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.367852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed No14c449.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No28c449$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.192437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed No75c444.48$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.761735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No25c406.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed No12c337.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.44825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c71…afe5backed Yes34c322$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No69c321.62$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.261216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No10c300.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No65c257.84$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.241637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed No9c249.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No8c240.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No6c237.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.974540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed Yes7c237.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+165%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No60c235.54$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.872540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No5c216.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.112832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4901…cc02backed No77c207.95$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b5…6562backed No17c204.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.571030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x840f…48e4backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed No10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92da…1b28backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+495.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe158…509fbacked No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e1…ab0fbacked No77c181.28$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x666f…d6a0backed Yes80c180.56$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…188dbacked No24c169.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3f…a4fdbacked No10c165.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No60c164.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.086136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No60c163.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.722425%6 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7fb3…c770backed No46c163.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b50…b0eebacked No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc290…bc01backed Yes22c140$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+350.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1d5dbacked No78c133$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c124.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8640712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No21c116.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7725122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes36c100.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.752450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdc…60a4backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb52…8046backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No17c79.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4972935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7b8…8e45backed No77c70.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe42d…0b89backed No77c64.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2589317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No18c55.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No34c51.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.533148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x277f…a3a1backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…5465backed No69c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…555dbacked No65c45.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ac…8460backed No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfac…a4febacked Yes80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc265…a1dbbacked No69c29.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a3…f1dcbacked No79c25.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4abd…e354backed No66c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53a1…6462backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c1a…54f0backed No76c23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…05f3backed No70c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7e…61e3backed No73c22.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…9a83backed No72c21.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a5…1f80backed No79c21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…4a12backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4c…44e2backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.