Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077fc0c447abfc7e094713e86d62acc20480560a6eb60bfbfc86a1c5f00b9339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,086,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,431,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,086,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 60c | 800,624$477,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477,353.66 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 67c | 472,028$316,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316,946.02 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 0c | 450,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 53c | 269,254$142,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142,596.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 229,912$92,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,994.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 64c | 159,312$101,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,824.06 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…03b2backed Yes | 0c | 144,105$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…5e10backed No | 47c | 136,683$64,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,293.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 42c | 132,991$56,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,089.15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked No | 15c | 127,089$18,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,371.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed Yes | 0c | 119,998$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 118,145$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.1 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 30c | 105,800$31,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,804 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 1c | 100,485$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 72c | 99,559$71,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,436.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 29c | 99,498$28,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,679.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 7c | 98,478$6,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,519.12 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 0c | 93,277$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 67c | 90,899$60,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,524.85 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…2e67backed Yes | 0c | 84,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…fa96backed Yes | 1c | 77,224$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 11c | 75,657$8,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,576.82 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 43c | 69,785$30,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,098.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 12c | 68,113$8,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,104.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…dad8backed No | 12c | 63,609$7,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,161.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 26c | 63,297$16,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,644.98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 53c | 53,293$28,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,167.23 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 7c | 52,900$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,207.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +258.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked Yes | 55c | 51,726$28,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,335.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…4bb1backed No | 34c | 51,306$17,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,114.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 1c | 51,138$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.49 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Yes | 55c | 50,291$27,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,466.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 35c | 47,921$16,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,006.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 38c | 43,962$16,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,200.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 36c | 43,217$15,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,580.88 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 42,837$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 42,513$17,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,611.03 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 40c | 41,289$16,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,519.45 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 14c | 40,892$5,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,572.88 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 71c | 40,561$28,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,955.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…f1bdbacked Yes | 6c | 40,277$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…30b7backed No | 42c | 39,701$16,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,098.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked Yes | 3c | 39,024$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 16c | 38,849$6,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,558.46 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 1c | 38,482$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…858cbacked No | 79c | 37,169$29,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,721.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Yes | 1c | 36,538$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 0c | 34,934$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb4…2268backed Yes | 2c | 34,072$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 20c | 32,738$6,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,417.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 29c | 32,571$9,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,507.81 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…ee79backed Yes | 4c | 32,538$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 24c | 32,482$7,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,876.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 15c | 31,507$4,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,726.44 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed No | 49c | 31,434$15,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,103.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 51c | 30,178$15,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,519.25 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 8c | 28,037$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 1c | 27,949$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.81 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 75c | 27,733$20,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,905.64 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…c50cbacked Yes | 3c | 27,432$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes | 15c | 26,732$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 0c | 25,408$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 79c | 24,838$19,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,685.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 9c | 24,673$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,340.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…0182backed Yes | 59c | 23,798$14,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,011.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 11c | 23,637$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,144.6 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…9455backed Yes | 0c | 23,210$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed No | 59c | 23,029$13,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,471.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked Yes | 65c | 22,399$14,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,563.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 15c | 21,591$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,369.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 73c | 21,349$15,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,506.42 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…8589backed Yes | 0c | 21,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 21,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 21,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked No | 5c | 21,000$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,853.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +320.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Yes | 6c | 20,957$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 75c | 20,892$15,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,232.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 6c | 20,299$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…90f4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…1facbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…f3ffbacked Yes | 0c | 19,966$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…6d3dbacked No | 51c | 19,703$10,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,573.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,460$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 1c | 19,392$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 1c | 19,023$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 1c | 18,848$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 14c | 18,170$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,565.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 67c | 18,151$12,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,123.51 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…71dcbacked No | 28c | 17,949$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,949.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 70c | 17,310$12,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,089.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes | 1c | 17,143$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 61c | 16,790$10,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,304.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Yes | 30c | 16,390$4,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,937 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 72c | 16,230$11,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,618.02 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 0c | 16,191$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed No | 50c | 15,750$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 51c | 15,612$8,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,603.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…27d0backed No | 18c | 15,463$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,628.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked No | 47c | 15,455$7,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,188.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.