Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2da7ceff23ae3885f8fca5d468fae77fb364b489b3fac9839e86cf0a342ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,588,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $790,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,588,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x952c…be27backed Yes | 0c | 136,139$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 0c | 65,164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 46,523$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 1c | 32,609$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 0c | 31,043$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes | 1c | 28,015$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed Yes | 4c | 27,452$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 26,661$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b01…0aa5backed Yes | 1c | 26,271$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 25,421$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes | 0c | 24,097$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…c143backed Yes | 0c | 23,159$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…645fbacked Yes | 1c | 23,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,066$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,670$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…04debacked Yes | 0c | 17,156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 1c | 15,491$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 15,466$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2737…8610backed Yes | 1c | 15,185$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f09…7884backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…5e10backed Yes | 2c | 11,643$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 1c | 11,580$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,870$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,637$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -83%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Yes | 1c | 10,173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 0c | 10,007$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…ddb5backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…4548backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +232.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,825$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 1c | 8,317$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,215$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked Yes | 1c | 7,585$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 7,147$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…3b5ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes | 1c | 7,013$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 5c | 6,874$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 6,055$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…e689backed Yes | 1c | 5,932$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 5,369$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 5,307$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,299$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…bc73backed Yes | 1c | 5,096$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…8589backed Yes | 0c | 4,809$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed Yes | 0c | 4,761$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,628$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7989…6c99backed Yes | 1c | 4,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1581backed Yes | 1c | 4,365$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 1c | 4,324$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 1c | 4,291$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…5505backed Yes | 1c | 4,125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…d980backed Yes | 1c | 4,059$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 1c | 4,019$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 1c | 4,009$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…562abacked Yes | 1c | 3,776$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…e100backed Yes | 1c | 3,668$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…14d5backed Yes | 1c | 3,588$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 3,187$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…ec67backed Yes | 1c | 3,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…cfbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,060$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb8…4d53backed Yes | 1c | 3,048$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 0c | 3,030$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,999$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,842$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,826$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed15…14dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,761$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed Yes | 4c | 2,743$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…65c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…2923backed Yes | 2c | 2,580$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…5e07backed Yes | 1c | 2,557$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 2,498$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…96afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,445$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 1c | 2,377$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Yes | 9c | 2,287$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…051fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…dd5abacked Yes | 1c | 2,244$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…2c10backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +374%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed Yes | 1c | 2,189$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 1c | 2,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…01f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,092$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…2429backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.