Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f5831761bff493ff3961e9d78c336e2898f3922227cc3046fc6c0a8a62c66b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $725,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $725,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 102,481$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…9464backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 0c | 21,974$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedb…e5a3backed Yes | 0c | 13,403$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed Yes | 0c | 12,949$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 0c | 12,698$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 0c | 12,540$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 11,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,448$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 0c | 10,096$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,580$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked Yes | 0c | 6,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,570$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…dd5abacked Yes | 0c | 5,535$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 0c | 5,290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…34a1backed Yes | 1c | 5,047$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…f05fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,980$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 4,076$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,511$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -83%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…da16backed Yes | 0c | 3,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,031$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…b550backed Yes | 1c | 2,924$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…d4c2backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ed…2c00backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…ac6cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…2dc0backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…2b5fbacked Yes | 3c | 896.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…1336backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.