Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05b878b0065451177cd879ae2888aff62ccb9fbc245b6793603f92b510919cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $869,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $830,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 96,070$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.93 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…2a9abacked Yes | 3c | 33,519$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed Yes | 1c | 27,985$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 2c | 21,077$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…e35bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…01d7backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…31dabacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…657abacked Yes | 3c | 11,300$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 11,220$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,078$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…9212backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 3c | 7,444$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.61 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 7,286$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 6c | 6,641$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 5c | 6,492$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,365$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 3c | 5,427$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…0159backed Yes | 0c | 5,333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe142…0631backed Yes | 0c | 5,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…5d88backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,962$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.19 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed Yes | 1c | 4,684$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,028$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,904$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,802$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…f9cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,572$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…9300backed Yes | 3c | 3,306$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +578.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 11c | 3,188$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ff2ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,789$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…f422backed Yes | 3c | 2,555$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…fc24backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…e689backed Yes | 1c | 2,079$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,691$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…a996backed Yes | 6c | 1,613$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7b…0fe2backed Yes | 1c | 1,611$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…1508backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,432$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,372$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,361$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,242$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…b4c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,088$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…9127backed Yes | 1c | 1,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…7cb3backed Yes | 16c | 1,028$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…689abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…149bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…6bcbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 6c | 970$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb6…e465backed Yes | 2c | 859.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…4b7bbacked Yes | 1c | 847.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 2c | 843.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…21a1backed Yes | 3c | 819.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…258cbacked Yes | 2c | 736.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 4c | 732.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed No | 74c | 731.16$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed Yes | 2c | 716.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…0febbacked Yes | 4c | 694.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…942dbacked Yes | 3c | 691.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 3c | 642.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Yes | 2c | 625$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cb…d25abacked Yes | 3c | 617.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…9fd1backed Yes | 6c | 615.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 15c | 608.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…ac16backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes | 3c | 539.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 2c | 517.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 5c | 459.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 441.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 3c | 432.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035e…b0b7backed Yes | 8c | 419.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 74c | 350$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 74c | 349.97$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 9c | 318.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +624.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 6c | 261.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.