TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c29…0b7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$662.71
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$54.25
Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$108.42
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$141
Will the government shutdown end November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will the government shutdown end November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$421
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+936.2%+$8,060.37
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$560.97
Will the government shutdown end November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35.97
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100.01
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$47.42
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$256.08
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25.82
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$298
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$153.24
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.54
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,454.92
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$109.93
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+437%+$686.1
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$4,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$4,037.9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+112.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+325.6%+$1,485.47
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
LoL: Cloud9 vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Nuggetsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+525%+$52.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$276
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$180
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.