TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,836

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x314a…80f6backed Yes2c27,860$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.3550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e57…53b3backed Yes4c12,520$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes13c5,427$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.942810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes10c4,112$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes9c3,805$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.44293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes5c2,505$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick33cpaid+387.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0df…f821backed Yes2c1,906$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes3c1,883$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+112.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes9c1,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e2…7283backed Yes9c1,509$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e4…c647backed Yes3c1,400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc538…c555backed Yes3c1,286$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.97728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c1,215$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.92345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57bc…c211backed Yes7c1,211$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6637…f84cbacked Yes9c1,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5860%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Yes10c1,047$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes11c1,002$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a5…9886backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes2c999.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes10c992.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c972.28$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.23563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes9c949.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes10c900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes9c895.43$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f9…1e30backed Yes3c885$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de0…3b9cbacked Yes12c842.42$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes2c801.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes12c785.17$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.221330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c782.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.44464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa652…b069backed Yes3c753.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes11c750$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x691c…71cabacked Yes3c723.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925a…5373backed Yes14c721.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes3c711.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6345…6718backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes6c587.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes9c585$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes14c559.23$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed6…4371backed Yes3c551.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes11c524.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.411625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…4acdbacked Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b55…7531backed Yes2c488$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc8…68a4backed Yes3c472.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+316.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe049…9b92backed Yes9c435.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb38…d280backed Yes3c425$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519e…7b80backed Yes9c423.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0472…c62fbacked Yes14c399.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…01d6backed Yes12c342.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes8c306.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes6c299.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes11c293.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes6c288.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.211520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes16c281.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb439…1dacbacked Yes16c281.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f57…50c1backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…bc5cbacked Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes8c246.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4907…e458backed Yes4c245.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes7c237.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbba…997ebacked Yes11c231.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd4e…7e37backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…a820backed Yes5c213.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9907…eec7backed Yes9c206.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa739…725abacked Yes7c202.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a89…9783backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x884a…aa34backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e73…db00backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4182backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c1…39e8backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18b…fdf2backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d7f…9941backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa338…2acabacked Yes10c190$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f1…a4ffbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d42backed Yes8c180$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe316…6e93backed Yes9c175.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes12c171.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes18c163.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c16…df00backed Yes12c161.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3c3…8f01backed Yes11c154.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…0e21backed Yes13c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick19cpaid+288.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa76a…750abacked Yes8c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes12c145.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes12c144.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes12c143.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…78d1backed Yes10c137.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.