TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7319…0299

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
145
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT6814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 68 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.57
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.33
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.62
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$719.87
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,076Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+141.7%+$2,942.16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,747Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$3,773.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,097Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+180.8%+$1,984.21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$912Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+363.4%+$3,314
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.67
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$5,566Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,566.29
Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100.67
Ukraine strike in Russia on 30 November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+247.3%+$48.06
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$497.25
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$83.41
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.69
NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98.85
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.97
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.21
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.6
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.62
Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+184.6%+$310.69
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,106.3
Showing 25 of 68 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.37
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+572.6%+$197.04
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$664.77
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+130.2%+$927.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.92
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,152.51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+277.9%+$711.07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$3,015Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+289.8%+$8,740.13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+169.3%+$423.13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$682.19
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.27
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+321%+$1,083.46
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+81.6%+$322.09
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+249.1%+$161.14
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$241.45
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$948Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$947.83
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,012.64
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.52
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+177.2%+$158.6
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.21
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$651.45
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.65
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.13
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.07
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29.57
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.45
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+288.7%+$447.38
Tech Release Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.85
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$301.74
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,796Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.2%+$471.32
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15.67
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$27.7
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+31.6%+$251.14
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$633.67
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+32.4%+$499.52
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$609.07
Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.22
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.85
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,499.26
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.93
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+100.5%+$373.22
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$136.51
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dogecoin reach $0.26 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+148.5%+$37.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$332.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.