Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d13c8f9fb4ec1ccd711050c2054c8f2b67b7e8779b8f98a8223d1773ce2132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf5…a7fbbacked No | 0c | 45,108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…713dbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 2c | 4,104$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,320$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 0c | 3,218$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 2,935$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked No | 4c | 1,665$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 2c | 1,366$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 3c | 1,234$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 3c | 1,159$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 4c | 667.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +463.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 4c | 460.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed No | 25c | 396.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 4c | 318.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 298.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 70c | 254.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 66c | 248$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…a673backed No | 5c | 232.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 49c | 231.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 35c | 204.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 10c | 200.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 10c | 199.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…51a0backed No | 5c | 195.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 34c | 154$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 23c | 129$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 18c | 108.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 34c | 96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 77c | 69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 31c | 66.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 33c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 75c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?this page
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 24 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 27 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 29 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 30 November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.