Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b079efe6be4eccb1355cc991a4aa56df1b1f43b852949a326a5cdf0e5f9f554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 657.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.81 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed No | 40c | 502.73$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed No | 35c | 478.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.69 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed No | 51c | 394.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 11c | 274.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.51 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 59c | 254.81$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 15c | 210.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.48 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 171.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.33 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 72c | 134.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 126.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 14c | 118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 115.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…27a7backed No | 27c | 97.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 27cpaid | +277.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 47c | 92.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 90.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…984dbacked No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 40.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 32c | 31.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 24.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?this page
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 24 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 27 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 29 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 30 November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.