Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989fcde1d94f35ecb929ab9f2e0afbdc8c1b6c50cc49278fa33a6fcb18efe227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 2c | 1,001$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +463.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 2c | 999.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 31c | 296.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 50c | 186.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 64c | 172$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3c90backed No | 22c | 167.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…f7edbacked Yes | 78c | 167.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 35c | 161$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…6080backed No | 22c | 159.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…1748backed Yes | 78c | 159.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 15c | 157.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 11c | 144.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 31c | 105.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 79c | 92.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 89.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 85.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 64.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed No | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…91c2backed No | 29c | 40.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 74c | 25.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 63c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025?this page
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 24 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 27 November 2025?No won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 29 November 2025?Yes won
- Ukraine strike in Russia on 30 November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.