AI · resolved market
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1225fabd24f7d972a60d3cb4a7ed06adcb2648c806baf9a5d76591f2552fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c4…d99ebacked No | 9c | 6,132$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 4,684$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.71 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…c8fabacked No | 3c | 3,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198d…d256backed No | 1c | 1,976$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 1,674$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…483cbacked No | 1c | 1,622$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f4…23d1backed Yes | 66c | 1,358$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 1,352$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…19b8backed Yes | 77c | 1,281$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…abc5backed No | 19c | 1,178$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ea…1693backed No | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…d9c6backed No | 3c | 1,069$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 69c | 1,022$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.73 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 926$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 57c | 888$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 52c | 887.62$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 33c | 873.59$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 36c | 773.36$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.36 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 71c | 693.14$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…edc4backed Yes | 74c | 676.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…a9fcbacked Yes | 73c | 601.28$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 17c | 600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 44c | 510.88$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 39c | 503.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 68c | 489.44$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 77c | 476.08$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 65c | 463.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed No | 44c | 457.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 405.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 73c | 404.97$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 399.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 394.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…7dddbacked No | 28c | 384.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…5fd1backed No | 27c | 360.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ce…44d4backed No | 28c | 359.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…b6bdbacked No | 28c | 353.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 66c | 345.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 76c | 343.15$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked No | 11c | 330.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…5af8backed Yes | 62c | 317.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 32c | 308.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 70c | 299.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 57c | 286.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…6d1bbacked Yes | 74c | 270.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…3560backed Yes | 74c | 269.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df0…9edabacked Yes | 75c | 265.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 241.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 72c | 223.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 70c | 222.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 210.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2520…b197backed Yes | 76c | 176.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…b2e4backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 30c | 165.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…d5dbbacked Yes | 39c | 152.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 20c | 148.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…020fbacked Yes | 72c | 138.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 15c | 136.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…cfc0backed Yes | 74c | 133.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 124.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 31c | 123.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 119.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…f4b7backed Yes | 77c | 114.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 33c | 111.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 26c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…02fabacked No | 37c | 107.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…1c40backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…e8ffbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 29c | 91.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 91.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 15c | 88.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 64c | 86.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…d446backed Yes | 64c | 83.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 73c | 82.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…f7c1backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…ffa2backed No | 24c | 77.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…76f5backed No | 26c | 75.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 74.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…db41backed Yes | 70c | 70.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01cb…2688backed No | 29c | 70.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 76c | 69.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…9d77backed Yes | 72c | 69.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 28c | 69.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 64c | 68.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked No | 64c | 67.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…a223backed No | 29c | 66.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 66.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Yes | 57c | 64.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…eaf5backed No | 29c | 62.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…3b70backed No | 45c | 60.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?this page
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 12?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 13?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 14?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 19?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 21?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 23?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 26?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 29?No won
- Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.