AI · resolved market
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe62929f21b80d0f3d54341ce3c250371d798043005e1a582745d320a2e7dc0db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4430…f40ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,399$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 1c | 2,142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 14c | 1,465$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,381$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…cbe7backed Yes | 13c | 1,349$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,075$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,016$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 932.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…f4b7backed Yes | 26c | 757.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 533.36$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.84 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 518.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 20c | 489.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 50c | 412.88$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…d534backed Yes | 15c | 346.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 344.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 277.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 256.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 50c | 216.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 23c | 200.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 183.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…dacfbacked Yes | 28c | 179.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 67c | 179.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…543ebacked Yes | 17c | 173.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 163.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1671…2f6dbacked Yes | 20c | 148.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…1738backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…9f44backed Yes | 15c | 129.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 44c | 114.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 10c | 112.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…15cbbacked Yes | 13c | 90.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 88.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 81.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 62c | 50.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…6f90backed No | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…ad0ebacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…e371backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 49 | 95.9%47 W · 2 L | +13.3wins | +0.27per pick | 69cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…fe57backed Yes | 43c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?this page
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 12?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 13?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 14?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 19?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 21?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 23?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 26?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 29?No won
- Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?Yes won
- Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.