TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7647…9f44

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Serie A at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$174.32
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+146.9%+$176.3
France vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$33.68
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+101%+$101.01
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$48
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+247.8%+$49.57
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+128%+$313.1
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.89
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
All 25 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.44
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.18
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.58
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.06
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$405.6
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.66
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.34
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.3
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+525%+$55.44
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$385.71
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+78.6%+$117.86
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+203%+$203.03
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$150.88
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$93
All 20 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+199.2%+$298.84
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+98.1%+$221.62
Chargers vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Ravens vs. Dolphinsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$112.82
Commanders vs. Chiefsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.93
Bears vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Spread: Texans (-2.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Giants vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+35%+$131.41
Packers vs. Cardinalsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
Eagles vs. Vikingsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+42%+$8.02
Lions vs. Chiefsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$93
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.94
All 13 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+116.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+37%+$40.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$102
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.