TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Norrieof Alcaraz, Norrie
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$489,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3151…0977backed Norrie53c75,429$40,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,238.5710845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Norrie41c64,481$26,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,286.352035%7 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8628…6f0bbacked Norrie19c54,571$10,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,937.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77f…cfbabacked Alcaraz0c24,398$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.871442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Alcaraz70c16,040$11,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,227.862142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Norrie5c12,355$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,711.945253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Alcaraz67c10,465$6,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.112770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alcaraz63c10,140$6,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,412.548,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Norrie26c7,666$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,685.492520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Alcaraz75c7,500$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,649.992450%12 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81a6…fb3abacked Alcaraz0c7,006$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Norrie29c7,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.7857939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Alcaraz45c6,328$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,847.526747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Norrie18c6,086$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,992.0724841.5%103 W · 145 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alcaraz54c5,635$3,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,038.7511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Alcaraz76c5,000$3,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,817.7966949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Norrie26c5,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,690.4644360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153b…275ebacked Norrie5c4,667$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+899%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alcaraz46c4,171$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.66,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Norrie4c4,100$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9361942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…a60abacked Alcaraz68c4,031$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Norrie8c3,875$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.5925722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Norrie4c3,472$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,324.399546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Norrie18c3,294$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,696.81,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Norrie7c3,195$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.712,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x006f…b3efbacked Norrie5c2,422$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+896.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Alcaraz40c2,272$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.875339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd297…2c15backed Alcaraz28c2,162$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6a…5d85backed Norrie6c2,152$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.63450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+386.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Norrie14c2,073$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.614546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Alcaraz50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+84%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Alcaraz45c1,849$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.8828833.3%96 W · 192 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Norrie16c1,790$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49518740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Alcaraz67c1,649$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.6438348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Norrie15c1,334$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.877037.1%26 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20eb…0bddbacked Alcaraz54c1,308$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.351546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Norrie28c1,268$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.632,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb6…da3ebacked Norrie5c1,251$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.452420.8%5 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Norrie14c1,230$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0632572%18 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+97.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x048f…8592backed Norrie4c1,070$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.91922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+188.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Norrie7c1,057$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.626530.8%20 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Norrie20c1,020$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.4122744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Alcaraz65c1,014$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.42,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…df70backed Alcaraz6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Norrie7c999.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.9919835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x091e…84bcbacked Alcaraz2c993.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b59…232fbacked Alcaraz70c975.71$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6833852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Alcaraz78c899.88$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.72152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdb5…44bdbacked Alcaraz47c844.44$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Norrie6c719$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.4918241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Alcaraz74c712.23$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9220257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Alcaraz50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35019131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Norrie22c679.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.4815048%72 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d13…a252backed Norrie12c663.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.181442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Norrie7c659.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.935133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a62…57cabacked Alcaraz16c614.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Norrie8c614$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.8810036%36 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d06…d48ebacked Alcaraz33c607.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Alcaraz50c601.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Alcaraz34c599.98$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20432050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34e…e1b9backed Norrie8c596.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,092.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Norrie14c581.17$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Norrie5c499.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.995862.1%36 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4a…dafabacked Norrie15c467.06$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3971100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Norrie27c461.97$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.851,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe333…b1e4backed Norrie4c440.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.58714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+224.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e80…09b8backed Norrie23c439.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Alcaraz42c420$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d1…8390backed Alcaraz75c402.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a4…e01dbacked Norrie6c400$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3761154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+135.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa844…7d5fbacked Alcaraz70c400$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Norrie7c399.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.9944423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Alcaraz34c384.19$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.874957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x604a…8379backed Norrie25c379.55$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Alcaraz53c377.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012253.3%65 W · 57 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed Norrie75c371.23$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.81666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Alcaraz62c368.08$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308248.8%40 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97be…7580backed Norrie6c357.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+378.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd83…5df4backed Alcaraz28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Alcaraz63c347.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22038951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Norrie7c339.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.882556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…9fd5backed Norrie18c334.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.352544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…b3d7backed Alcaraz41c331.7$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Norrie14c329.26$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9511533.9%39 W · 76 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce12…0e76backed Norrie20c328.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.791861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Alcaraz50c318.4$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x440c…a4f1backed Norrie6c307.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+772.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41cc…26eabacked Norrie27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21910251%52 W · 50 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Alcaraz76c300$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2281560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8886…3913backed Norrie34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.123228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Norrie7c286$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.981,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Alcaraz35c272.28$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9528952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Alcaraz24c270.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.213435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d37…59b5backed Norrie20c256.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.069462.8%59 W · 35 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Norrie56c242.97$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.82254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Alcaraz34c235.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Alcaraz46c218.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e4…f323backed Alcaraz68c214.96$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Norrie43c207.24$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.136046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Norrie6c202.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7922840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.