Fifa International · resolved market
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7012634ce5d03f3c01705db6c7892fd3969cb6a692e89a7204f1887eadefca28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,003$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.99 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 11c | 2,011$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…5b3fbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 712.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…8b15backed Yes | 13c | 523.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…df9abacked Yes | 13c | 367.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…17e4backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 13c | 280$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…61f0backed Yes | 14c | 271.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 241.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…57e3backed Yes | 14c | 222.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 228 | 51.8%118 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…602abacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…9f44backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…e78ebacked Yes | 17c | 173$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 18c | 125.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…baeabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…26f9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 298 | 13.8%41 W · 257 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 133 | 45.1%60 W · 73 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…ee2bbacked No | 75c | 40.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…ae41backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfd…038bbacked No | 80c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 364 | 23.6%86 W · 278 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 99. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsthis page
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assistsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goalsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shotsYes won
- Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shotsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assistsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsNo won
- Brice Samba: 3+ savesNo won
- Brice Samba: 4+ savesNo won
- Cucurella: 1+ shotsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- David Raya: 3+ savesNo won
- David Raya: 4+ savesNo won
- David Raya: 5+ savesNo won
- Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shotsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jules Koundé: 1+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.