Fifa International · resolved market
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x246afec288973a6d358ca6aca249dfa7ace8e42752eef675238e8fb77a3c2d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes | 3c | 21,201$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.02 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 2c | 20,311$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.75 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes | 3c | 17,241$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d2…4bddbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 5,891$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 3,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 176 | 25%44 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 3c | 3,023$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…d825backed Yes | 2c | 2,108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…10b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 724 | 24.7%179 W · 545 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 3c | 1,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 197 | 13.7%27 W · 170 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…26f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,724$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 1,543$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7c…3016backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…6883backed Yes | 3c | 1,069$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 3c | 1,017$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…2ee2backed Yes | 3c | 965.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Yes | 3c | 724.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…edebbacked Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…e9f5backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…eab5backed Yes | 3c | 668.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…9f48backed Yes | 5c | 666$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 3c | 585$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 13.5%27 W · 173 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…2290backed Yes | 3c | 536.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…9d9abacked Yes | 3c | 520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…71d0backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…a3d9backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 293 | 38.2%112 W · 181 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…fb29backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 3c | 490.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…e840backed Yes | 3c | 473.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 4c | 409.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 3c | 360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 168 | 47%79 W · 89 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 99. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsthis page
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assistsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goalsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shotsYes won
- Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shotsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assistsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsNo won
- Brice Samba: 3+ savesNo won
- Brice Samba: 4+ savesNo won
- Cucurella: 1+ shotsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsNo won
- Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- David Raya: 3+ savesNo won
- David Raya: 4+ savesNo won
- David Raya: 5+ savesNo won
- Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shotsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jules Koundé: 1+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shotsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsNo won
- Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.