TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$995,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$880,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $995,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c38…1218backed No14c72,962$10,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,017.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed No4c35,913$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8451…2bd1backed No0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6001…f848backed No1c27,327$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No5c22,690$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.576037.6%286 W · 474 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf756…29e6backed No0c22,566$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be3…c64fbacked No16c15,423$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No5c13,474$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.121323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No6c12,634$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No8c12,064$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.072250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0aa…1f7fbacked No27c10,963$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b88…19c8backed No8c10,000$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb34…51febacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffef…d38bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No7c9,999$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No13c9,719$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.8680%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0dd0backed No15c9,650$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No12c9,227$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.42119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa502…4086backed No11c8,580$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked No18c7,486$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No11c7,318$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9d…3f98backed No10c7,102$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No7c6,950$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+143.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…6ab0backed No0c6,243$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No6c5,733$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed No9c5,658$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…a5f3backed No12c5,353$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64b2…a51abacked Yes76c5,325$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…5ba0backed No8c5,304$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4104613%6 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb56a…809abacked No8c5,291$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba2…3734backed No8c5,172$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No9c5,056$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes79c5,000$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked No19c4,700$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c4,684$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1346314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b50…d74dbacked No9c4,466$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b4…27f7backed No8c4,377$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No9c4,272$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af1…abc0backed No12c4,185$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2381…2b8fbacked No7c4,089$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df8…4961backed No12c4,022$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No7c4,017$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.361625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No7c4,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No7c3,991$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked No12c3,850$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf1…98cbbacked No10c3,500$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4340…58b0backed No15c3,461$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4938…aae6backed No10c3,276$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed No10c3,276$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64b…e382backed No8c3,208$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed No16c3,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…4a1dbacked No8c2,942$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…f6b3backed No8c2,900$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a5…7850backed No9c2,724$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7c…ebfdbacked No10c2,698$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed No11c2,655$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+73.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No8c2,650$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b04…6549backed No8c2,547$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eda…719ebacked No8c2,530$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe3…4c77backed No10c2,510$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0138…044bbacked No3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2697…8144backed No8c2,487$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10f8…bed5backed No4c2,273$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No9c2,271$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7515530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb24e…599dbacked No13c2,264$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked No8c2,200$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf08…d11fbacked No6c2,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed No7c2,194$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4746…9a30backed No10c2,155$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No7c2,136$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709e…adc8backed No15c2,069$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7136…8163backed No10c2,012$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b04…3a41backed No9c2,000$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No7c2,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…a3a4backed No10c2,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96dd…3592backed No5c1,980$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No8c1,905$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0717226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…906bbacked No13c1,877$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked No15c1,823$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No10c1,802$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.21513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No12c1,800$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked No14c1,792$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbe…1911backed No12c1,773$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked No11c1,756$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a05…822fbacked No12c1,748$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed No9c1,724$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…0b60backed No15c1,716$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb7…339dbacked No14c1,676$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.341233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed No8c1,665$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No11c1,604$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.591526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…6b60backed No6c1,603$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No3c1,600$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed No5c1,600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0015…a143backed No12c1,572$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc02c…2852backed No10c1,553$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c9…7e10backed No13c1,550$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9e7…4dc1backed No18c1,489$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No8c1,472$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-72.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…c581backed No17c1,469$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No11c1,454$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.12137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.