TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spainof Portugal, Spain
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,926,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,377,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,926,109 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6501…1220backed Spain65c605,991$395,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210,912.424667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Spain79c477,517$375,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,855.152661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3c1…a743backed Portugal34c317,776$107,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,343.191163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd22…ad91backed Portugal34c299,999$102,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,999.741020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a6…9458backed Spain66c299,999$197,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,999.634753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Portugal34c299,997$101,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,998.9715249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Portugal35c277,777$97,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,222.068246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Spain66c262,238$172,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,783.4322348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Spain65c250,001$162,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,500.289142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Spain67c221,898$148,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,226.486524.6%16 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5f…2e21backed Spain66c173,157$114,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,690.681060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+67.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Portugal37c159,795$58,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,358.791,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a96…5dabbacked Portugal34c153,237$52,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,100.42683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Spain66c146,000$96,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,639.8415456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Portugal34c127,550$42,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,959.4917852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Portugal35c125,640$43,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,974.174250%21 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Portugal36c124,000$44,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,639.9325038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Portugal31c123,551$38,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,544.9637223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Spain66c119,999$79,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,799.85967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd86e…45cebacked Portugal34c112,446$38,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,008.388856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed Portugal33c112,301$37,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,305.556048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Spain67c100,781$67,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,257.783571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Portugal34c100,000$34,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,00017840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Spain66c99,999$66,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,999.7917949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882f…a8c0backed Spain66c98,871$65,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,616.215366%35 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Portugal5c89,247$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.7766846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82b0…bd8bbacked Spain67c87,483$58,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,869.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d6d…2654backed Spain63c82,443$51,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,503.932657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Portugal34c80,085$27,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,340.4117447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Portugal26c79,349$20,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,393.22,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Portugal10c76,042$7,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,290.125240.4%21 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fef…a50cbacked Portugal0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick44cpaid-66.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Spain65c70,011$45,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,503.633259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spain66c66,135$43,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,486.0242345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Portugal33c65,003$21,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,523.9129952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Spain66c65,000$42,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,10013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Spain66c64,999$43,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,849.7753448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spain66c64,528$42,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,969.691,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Portugal33c62,149$20,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,487.720724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Portugal34c60,779$20,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,664.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076b…57afbacked Portugal33c60,675$20,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,082.663545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…73c3backed Portugal35c60,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,0002650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Spain66c59,000$38,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,059.9434247.7%163 W · 179 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1153…df79backed Portugal34c58,824$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…af22backed Spain66c55,089$36,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,787.111752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Portugal15c52,612$8,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,125.8914715.6%23 W · 124 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spain64c50,000$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.9627039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Spain66c50,000$33,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,999.852860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15b…38afbacked Spain66c49,999$32,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,999.673063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d5…9e9fbacked Portugal33c49,950$16,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,483.413748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Portugal35c47,918$16,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,549.425328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spain64c47,076$30,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,793.5377152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe94…8a3dbacked Portugal33c45,000$15,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Spain67c44,776$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,776.123971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9896…a925backed Spain67c41,984$28,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,854.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d85…197fbacked Portugal34c41,844$14,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,226.957851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…e409backed Portugal0c40,556$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.791822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-64.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x355d…65e0backed Spain66c40,000$26,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,599.942560%15 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Portugal34c38,668$12,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,95810849.1%53 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0210…4debbacked Spain67c35,263$23,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,636.731747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb225…3d54backed Portugal34c35,000$11,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,9009525.3%24 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Spain66c34,000$22,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,5603638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked Portugal34c33,837$11,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,504.585745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Portugal34c33,547$11,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,405.984348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b6…ca29backed Portugal34c33,370$11,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,345.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Spain65c32,000$20,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,079.9924526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Portugal34c31,518$10,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,7168952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Spain67c31,343$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,343.191656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Portugal22c30,649$6,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,831.413,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Spain65c30,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,50015950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Spain67c30,000$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9004153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Portugal38c30,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.959451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Portugal34c30,000$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,099.9211637.1%43 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Portugal33c30,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.8913331.6%42 W · 91 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1b…a59cbacked Spain67c29,708$19,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,803.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…a804backed Portugal35c29,518$10,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,331.242630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Portugal34c29,412$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…867ebacked Portugal35c28,857$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2299…d23abacked Portugal35c28,571$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Spain66c28,007$18,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,522.3816357.1%93 W · 70 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Spain62c27,792$17,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,661.6326320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Portugal19c27,779$5,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,415.3836939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Portugal34c27,371$9,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,306.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Portugal33c26,698$8,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,810.233718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9437…3422backed Portugal34c25,810$8,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,775.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…dea6backed Portugal34c25,505$8,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,671.73129%9 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf53…3146backed Spain62c25,350$15,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,533.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca02…76d3backed Portugal33c24,245$8,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000.817835.9%28 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Spain63c24,178$15,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,854.721172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Spain65c24,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.9513240.2%53 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaede…c43fbacked Portugal34c23,834$8,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,103.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Portugal34c23,791$8,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,186.8236247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Spain66c23,010$15,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,901.034254.8%23 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…5dc4backed Spain66c22,966$15,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,738.473522.9%8 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spain65c22,956$15,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,921.431,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x794d…53c8backed Spain64c22,567$14,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,193.425240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c5…1e01backed Spain64c22,335$14,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,040.693243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Portugal33c22,058$7,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,279.1412255.7%68 W · 54 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd10…416fbacked Portugal35c21,973$7,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,627.18237.8%31 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Portugal32c21,770$6,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,973.188,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.