Spread: Spain (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7bcfd905c5a219bba64d8ae3ed6f88ee21e77f532f483e9a7d090d60e39fb9

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Portugalof Spain, Portugal
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $199,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $195,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,224 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Spain	8c	15,212$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,224.71	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Spain	10c	15,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.99	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Spain	11c	9,091$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	249	17.7%44 W · 205 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed Spain	11c	9,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Spain	3c	6,751$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.84	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Spain	11c	6,017$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.86	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Spain	9c	5,934$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.32	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked Spain	1c	5,620$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec9…1e0cbacked Spain	11c	5,578$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.63	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Spain	11c	5,255$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.05	702	44.6%313 W · 389 L	+13.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e7c…6392backed Spain	5c	4,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Spain	10c	3,772$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.2	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Spain	2c	3,280$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Spain	11c	2,500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	122	27.9%34 W · 88 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Spain	5c	2,146$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.33	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Spain	1c	1,990$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.38	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Spain	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Spain	11c	1,364$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	124	29%36 W · 88 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Spain	11c	1,364$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	408	48.8%199 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…896fbacked Spain	10c	1,175$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.54	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Spain	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Spain	10c	999.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	214	44.4%95 W · 119 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Spain	1c	900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Spain	11c	839.73$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.37	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spain	6c	781.65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.93	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spain	3c	740$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Spain	10c	625.66$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…5794backed Spain	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	115	31.3%36 W · 79 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Spain	5c	457.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeed8…aafdbacked Spain	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7d…224cbacked Spain	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…5977backed Spain	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Spain	11c	372.36$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Spain	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…eaa6backed Spain	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-48%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf369…8283backed Spain	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	259	37.5%97 W · 162 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Spain	9c	243.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	427	10.3%44 W · 383 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd2…5dedbacked Spain	11c	230$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked Spain	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db0…7ff6backed Spain	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Spain	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Spain	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	44.4%63 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066b…e07ebacked Spain	11c	190.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa5…be51backed Spain	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.37per pick	38cpaid	+94.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43a8…e9d9backed Spain	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…5b25backed Spain	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Spain	10c	154.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Spain	10c	142$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Spain	11c	140$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c59…6719backed Spain	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11f5…ea34backed Spain	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	222	42.3%94 W · 128 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d4e…4accbacked Spain	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	81	21%17 W · 64 L	-9.3wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b10…ffd3backed Spain	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Spain	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Spain	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	274	45.3%124 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Spain	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	36.4%32 W · 56 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Spain	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Spain	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	172	27.3%47 W · 125 L	-9.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Spain	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	481	47.8%230 W · 251 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd13a…3371backed Spain	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa801…7310backed Spain	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Spain (-2.5)this page
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 7.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 8.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Portugal won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spain (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event