TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Portugal (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spainof Portugal, Spain
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$323,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,996 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portugal2c50,564$907 inLost-$907.463,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portugal2c48,767$849 inLost-$848.894,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Portugal2c40,422$808 inLost-$808.431323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+319.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Portugal2c22,106$441 inLost-$440.9136123.5%85 W · 276 L-1.7wins0.00per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Portugal2c12,500$250 inLost-$2501,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Portugal2c8,234$156 inLost-$156.4421333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked Portugal1c7,509$62 inLost-$62.56819.1%13 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Portugal2c6,808$134 inLost-$134.1372722.7%165 W · 562 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Portugal2c5,951$102 inLost-$102.1531232.4%101 W · 211 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Portugal2c5,000$90 inLost-$907356.2%41 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Portugal2c4,662$74 inLost-$73.6537223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Portugal2c4,400$97 inLost-$96.810326.2%27 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Portugal2c4,246$85 inLost-$84.922,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Portugal2c4,233$80 inLost-$80.328,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Portugal1c3,826$43 inLost-$43.0984738.8%329 W · 518 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Portugal1c3,548$52 inLost-$51.51,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Portugal3c3,150$85 inLost-$85.0560511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Portugal2c2,778$50 inLost-$5016538.2%63 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6752…5977backed Portugal2c2,500$48 inLost-$47.5219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-70.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f17…c1dbbacked Portugal2c2,500$46 inLost-$462888%23 W · 265 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Portugal2c2,265$50 inLost-$5040848.8%199 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portugal2c2,201$42 inLost-$41.792,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0510…10c4backed Portugal2c1,350$27 inLost-$27120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Portugal2c1,124$21 inLost-$21.261,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…849bbacked Portugal2c989.44$18 inLost-$17.814626.1%12 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Portugal2c820.14$16 inLost-$15.652,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Portugal2c800.45$18 inLost-$17.6116831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Portugal2c799.99$16 inLost-$16.247127.8%131 W · 340 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed Portugal2c750$15 inLost-$15385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Portugal2c642.12$12 inLost-$11.971,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Portugal2c545.45$12 inLost-$1217919%34 W · 145 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ab…7d30backed Portugal2c527.77$10 inLost-$10.287544%33 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d86…9241backed Portugal2c476.19$10 inLost-$1012020.8%25 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.