Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51304d7dbf42d6bea059e21d4a38dabea29786263a45f49d378e71c20b68aaee

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,310 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x792e…fd6cbacked Over	56c	4,425$2,478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,477.76	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under	46c	3,985$1,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,157.77	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Under	44c	3,644$1,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,031.12	185	43.8%81 W · 104 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Under	45c	3,378$1,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,874.07	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed Under	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	106	53.8%57 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969a…59ddbacked Under	50c	2,611$1,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,305.67	92	47.8%44 W · 48 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	56c	1,632$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.57	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	50c	1,417$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.23	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed06…72e7backed Under	50c	1,384$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	50c	1,331$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.5	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	50c	1,327$664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.5	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…e8a8backed Under	47c	1,064$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.83	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d0…1855backed Over	50c	786$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over	53c	733.08$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.53	342	49.1%168 W · 174 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over	51c	722.97$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.82	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	75c	717.11$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.62	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Over	54c	599$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.35	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Under	27c	555$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.15	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+25.9wins	+0.19per pick	33cpaid	+129%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc11c…933fbacked Over	52c	500.99$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed Over	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	36c	315.54$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.96	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	52c	300$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b02…083abacked Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e48…10fcbacked Over	50c	285.76$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.78	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Under	71c	255.22$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.29	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1530…6aaabacked Over	56c	253.02$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.85	161	63.4%102 W · 59 L	+25.7wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x68a1…d982backed Over	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2540…6becbacked Under	45c	211$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.05	245	40.4%99 W · 146 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…cf06backed Over	50c	208$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Under	53c	203.69$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.31	451	45%203 W · 248 L	+22.3wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	246	49.2%121 W · 125 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0b…01a4backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-6.7wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaf33…b5f8backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	200	17%34 W · 166 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9516…0bcbbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	562	40.6%228 W · 334 L	-11.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9001…4149backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9f…73a7backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	35c	168.1$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	12c	167.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Over	51c	161.07$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.15	272	27.6%75 W · 197 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Over	52c	150.01$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.01	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Over	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.31	175	33.7%59 W · 116 L	-12.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Under	50c	135.46$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.95	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b9…a8e7backed Over	56c	123.05$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.91	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	50c	115.41$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.71	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over	80c	106.59$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.94	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	140	43.6%61 W · 79 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under	45c	99.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Over	56c	94.64$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over	48c	92.31$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.31	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	56c	91$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.04	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Over	16c	89.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	43c	80.28$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.29	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Over	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	293	38.2%112 W · 181 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked Under	30c	78.51$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.18	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+9.0wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+126.7%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8cbf…79c3backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7763…1f14backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+5.7wins	+0.18per pick	43cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xabfe…dba6backed Over	50c	54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	97	34%33 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69e3…126cbacked Under	78c	51.28$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2116…eb8fbacked Under	30c	46.21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.21	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ad…dffebacked Over	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	52c	43.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb889…c4e6backed Over	50c	37.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Over	37c	37.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	184	31.5%58 W · 126 L	-19.1wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fdc…dfabbacked Over	50c	30.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	120	39.2%47 W · 73 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a4…cc70backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…078abacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa608…2c77backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	59.6%59 W · 40 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2da…fdd7backed Over	51c	25.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.85	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	50c	20.09$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.09	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd460…48a6backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	68c	17.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 7.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 8.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Portugal won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event