Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db1730638fd24a92021ed92ca8ca94ed744ba7c9085a7da2c3cdf91f3471606

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,631 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	12c	4,910$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.64	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	21c	4,324$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.38	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	77c	2,500$1,914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585.6	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae1…378fbacked Over	24c	2,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	189	29.1%55 W · 134 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	77c	1,431$1,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.49	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	4c	1,408$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.13	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Over	24c	1,292$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	167	47.3%79 W · 88 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Over	14c	1,235$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.84	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over	24c	1,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	150	54%81 W · 69 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	23c	952.65$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.11	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	23c	949.96$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.16	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe168…e559backed Under	77c	909.09$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.09	47	68.1%32 W · 15 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	21c	888$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.15	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe020…ff13backed Under	79c	886.27$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.27	46	67.4%31 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Over	22c	861.43$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.58	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	24c	851.73$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.42	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ebc…6bfdbacked Under	77c	774.55$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.55	113	57.5%65 W · 48 L	-7.2wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	17c	761.33$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.82	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	24c	752.99$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.72	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1411…631dbacked Over	8c	733.33$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7d…d997backed Under	77c	649.35$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.35	97	37.1%36 W · 61 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	77c	646.62$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.98	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under	77c	591$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.93	702	44.6%313 W · 389 L	+13.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	6c	577$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.62	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Under	77c	499.97$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.99	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	10c	494.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fb…65ddbacked Under	78c	434.62$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.62	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5b…315ebacked Over	25c	425.28$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.32	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Over	23c	400$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	229	43.7%100 W · 129 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under	76c	348.39$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.61	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under	77c	336$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.28	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Under	76c	311.75$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.82	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	76c	310.06$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.41	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67c…9ad5backed Over	23c	304.35$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-7.7wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	9c	235.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1a…fea4backed Over	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Over	23c	199.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	24c	170.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	24c	162.33$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	76c	158.02$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.31	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca77…d7a8backed Over	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Over	24c	145.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	199	39.2%78 W · 121 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Under	80c	108.75$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.75	294	63.3%186 W · 108 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Over	20c	108.75$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	98	21.4%21 W · 77 L	-8.6wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-26%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbcc7…4e28backed Over	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a49…a53bbacked Over	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4519…49e4backed Over	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4192…b396backed Over	15c	99.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74f…2eb3backed Under	77c	83.12$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.12	150	50.7%76 W · 74 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over	22c	80.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	328	37.2%122 W · 206 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…ce1ebacked Over	22c	68.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6f…d024backed Under	77c	63.71$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.65	774	33.1%256 W · 518 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…682dbacked Over	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Over	23c	59.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	618	55.3%342 W · 276 L	+23.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd3…c8ebbacked Over	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26df…f9afbacked Over	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under	77c	34$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.82	237	61.2%145 W · 92 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b91…30bebacked Under	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b5…5b1ebacked Under	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf7…0fb8backed Under	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Under	77c	24.17$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.62	1,151	58.5%673 W · 478 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e13…3e62backed Under	77c	24.06$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.53	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	63cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Under	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Under	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	175	33.7%59 W · 116 L	-12.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	76c	15.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.81	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	77c	15.36$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.53	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5this page
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 4.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 6.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 7.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 8.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Portugal won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Portugal won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event