NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Chiefs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea11838031898568d1cf6be17f07bbaf33df76dfc0d1ea206d4bd817aaa2785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Commanders, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,672,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,525,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,672,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Commanders | 17c | 912,752$155,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155,167.84 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Commanders | 19c | 327,452$61,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,118.15 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Commanders | 14c | 271,536$38,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,797.08 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders | 14c | 202,025$28,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,553.7 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Commanders | 16c | 186,176$30,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,667.54 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Commanders | 16c | 178,137$28,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,501.89 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Commanders | 15c | 100,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,999.99 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Commanders | 17c | 57,449$9,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,854.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Commanders | 14c | 50,229$7,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,032 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Commanders | 15c | 45,994$6,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,899.1 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Commanders | 14c | 41,458$5,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,605.9 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…9f41backed Chiefs | 78c | 41,090$32,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,039.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders | 14c | 30,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 25c | 27,476$6,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,811.76 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Commanders | 14c | 24,748$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Commanders | 22c | 20,414$4,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,494.09 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Commanders | 20c | 20,343$4,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104.03 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Commanders | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Commanders | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.97 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Chiefs | 76c | 20,000$15,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.94 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Commanders | 15c | 19,122$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Commanders | 19c | 17,123$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,168.2 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Commanders | 13c | 16,934$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Commanders | 17c | 12,612$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.36 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Commanders | 0c | 10,407$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 15.5%22 W · 120 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Commanders | 14c | 10,160$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.39 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Commanders | 0c | 10,018$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Commanders | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…d1a1backed Commanders | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs | 76c | 9,620$7,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.38 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…18febacked Commanders | 15c | 8,887$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Commanders | 1c | 8,836$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +296.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Commanders | 14c | 8,396$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.44 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Commanders | 0c | 8,315$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 98 | 0%0 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Commanders | 27c | 7,407$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chiefs | 77c | 6,345$4,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.89 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…7d29backed Commanders | 14c | 5,989$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Commanders | 17c | 5,850$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Chiefs | 73c | 5,713$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.93 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Commanders | 15c | 5,650$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Chiefs | 75c | 5,588$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.98 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Commanders | 18c | 5,555$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…5f17backed Commanders | 14c | 5,550$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Commanders | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…6c41backed Commanders | 15c | 4,950$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…c804backed Commanders | 14c | 4,267$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Commanders | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Chiefs | 79c | 3,900$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.62 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…92ccbacked Commanders | 15c | 3,747$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…e0fbbacked Commanders | 14c | 3,273$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Commanders | 16c | 3,056$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Commanders | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Commanders | 17c | 2,672$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.25 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…16c2backed Commanders | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…61c3backed Commanders | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…e135backed Commanders | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Commanders | 17c | 2,416$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.71 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…8a3dbacked Commanders | 17c | 2,322$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Commanders | 14c | 2,320$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Commanders | 15c | 2,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…9f44backed Commanders | 15c | 2,133$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Commanders | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…2c46backed Commanders | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Commanders | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…9836backed Commanders | 18c | 1,933$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Commanders | 6c | 1,871$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Commanders | 20c | 1,864$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.87 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Commanders | 17c | 1,765$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…c9cbbacked Commanders | 8c | 1,675$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…76ddbacked Commanders | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Commanders | 26c | 1,564$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.96 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…aaa3backed Commanders | 17c | 1,539$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…8ad2backed Commanders | 15c | 1,519$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40f…fedebacked Commanders | 15c | 1,464$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…13febacked Commanders | 14c | 1,464$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Commanders | 17c | 1,395$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Commanders | 14c | 1,388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Commanders | 15c | 1,383$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Commanders | 23c | 1,382$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Commanders | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Commanders | 15c | 1,356$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Chiefs | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Commanders | 1c | 1,332$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…228fbacked Commanders | 15c | 1,302$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Chiefs | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Chiefs | 78c | 1,275$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders | 14c | 1,223$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Commanders | 16c | 1,200$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Commanders | 17c | 1,180$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Commanders | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…d0ebbacked Commanders | 17c | 1,152$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…1d3ebacked Chiefs | 73c | 1,150$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Commanders | 15c | 1,040$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Commanders | 18c | 1,004$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Commanders | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Commanders | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Commanders | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Commanders | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6bfbbacked Commanders | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Commanders | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Chiefsthis page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.