NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbf6c64187326232c01d2730c8e16b9c77e540f8fe35439f9d3904f703f55b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Chiefs | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Commanders | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Commanders | 58c | 8,000$4,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Chiefs | 42c | 7,403$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,294 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Commanders | 56c | 6,483$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.34 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Chiefs | 44c | 5,592$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.44 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 44c | 2,889$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.11 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 56c | 1,947$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 43c | 1,640$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.52 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 55c | 1,414$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Chiefs | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Chiefs | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Commanders | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Commanders | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Chiefs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Commanders | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Chiefs | 44c | 900$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Chiefs | 44c | 695.83$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs | 44c | 518.51$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Commanders | 57c | 495.82$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Commanders | 56c | 396.3$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Commanders | 55c | 357.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Commanders | 54c | 335.69$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Chiefs | 48c | 334.82$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Commanders | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chiefs | 48c | 260$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Commanders | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Chiefs | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…3840backed Commanders | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Chiefs | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Commanders | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Commanders | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Commanders | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Chiefs | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Commanders | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Commanders | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Chiefs | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Commanders | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Chiefs | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Commanders | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Chiefs | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdb…cc6bbacked Commanders | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Commanders | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…69f5backed Chiefs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…ba06backed Commanders | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Commanders | 57c | 40.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…7607backed Commanders | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 46c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.