NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc765ad50fc4ed045e82fd62ec4e6abe80551c1f925b3586e1d52013fa5f76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,244,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,252,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,244,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Commanders | 52c | 1,679,421$867,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867,835.33 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,460,132$707,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752,689.37 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Chiefs | 49c | 220,906$107,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112,930.77 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Chiefs | 51c | 136,253$69,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,724.81 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Commanders | 50c | 123,484$61,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,742.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Commanders | 51c | 84,847$43,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,271.82 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Commanders | 52c | 73,713$38,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,330.64 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 49c | 69,086$33,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,890.2 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Chiefs | 46c | 60,000$27,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,150 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 49c | 43,394$21,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,976.95 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Chiefs | 51c | 40,365$20,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,913.9 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Chiefs | 49c | 36,497$17,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,613.61 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Commanders | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Chiefs | 48c | 18,176$8,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,533.47 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chiefs | 46c | 17,823$8,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,599.55 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chiefs | 47c | 16,614$7,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,757.1 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Chiefs | 47c | 15,580$7,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,202.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chiefs | 52c | 14,902$7,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,153.19 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs | 47c | 13,020$6,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,900.6 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 46c | 12,000$5,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,479.95 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Commanders | 49c | 10,000$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.25 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Commanders | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Commanders | 48c | 8,747$4,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,198.44 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Chiefs | 49c | 8,545$4,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.9 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Commanders | 52c | 8,387$4,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,361.2 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Commanders | 55c | 5,030$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.3 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Chiefs | 50c | 4,600$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Commanders | 52c | 4,300$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,215 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Chiefs | 47c | 3,702$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.06 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Commanders | 2c | 3,429$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Commanders | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Commanders | 47c | 2,941$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.64 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Commanders | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 51c | 2,669$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.13 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,555$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.85 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Commanders | 51c | 2,545$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.95 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…8a9fbacked Commanders | 51c | 2,405$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Commanders | 49c | 2,300$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.69 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 2,276$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.69 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Commanders | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…4efabacked Chiefs | 49c | 2,003$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Commanders | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Chiefs | 27c | 1,556$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.93 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…9eefbacked Chiefs | 51c | 1,508$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…b735backed Commanders | 50c | 1,507$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Commanders | 49c | 1,427$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.49 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 49c | 1,251$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde5…32b5backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…f03bbacked Chiefs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Commanders | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…4eaebacked Chiefs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…37c3backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Commanders | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Chiefs | 49c | 950.32$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.66 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Commanders | 51c | 877.13$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.15 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Chiefs | 52c | 815.38$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.38 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Commanders | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 766$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Commanders | 51c | 753.06$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.06 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Chiefs | 49c | 691.43$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.43 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Chiefs | 45c | 666.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.36 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders | 55c | 650.91$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 646.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.23 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs | 51c | 600$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.5 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Chiefs | 50c | 599.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Commanders | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs | 48c | 560.59$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.59 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Chiefs | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Commanders | 54c | 465$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Chiefs | 49c | 453.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Chiefs | 48c | 452.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.13 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Commanders | 49c | 405.01$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Chiefs | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Chiefs | 50c | 352$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 330$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Chiefs | 51c | 320$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -6.5wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Chiefs | 54c | 304.85$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Chiefs | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Chiefs | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…94cabacked Chiefs | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Commanders | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chiefs | 54c | 236.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Commanders | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…84cebacked Chiefs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…11d4backed Chiefs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Chiefs | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Commanders | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…34e7backed Commanders | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.