TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd939…9eef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
17
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,593Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$3,593.2
Oilers vs. Senatorsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$912Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$745.9
Senators vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$816Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$883.68
Senators vs. Lightningbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+151.2%+$1,120.05
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$769Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$738.84
Bengals vs. Packersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$8,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$8,280
Pan Pacific Open: Belinda Bencic vs Karolina Muchovabacked Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$649Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$895.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$429.71
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$577.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NEC win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$1,244.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Parma win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$283
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$646.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$864.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$849.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Duke vs. Clemsonbacked Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.