TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Senators, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,903 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning60c20,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Senators40c19,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,40014538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1ca3…48a9backed Senators51c12,951$6,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,319.356764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Senators38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9814253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Senators41c5,000$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.0458467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x66c5…85b2backed Lightning62c3,287$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x343c…741dbacked Senators39c3,005$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.032250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Senators37c2,681$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.8669550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Lightning60c2,441$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.533655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Lightning62c2,286$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.032556%14 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf137…a557backed Lightning61c1,988$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.683237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning56c1,870$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.792,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd939…9eefbacked Senators40c1,861$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf453…9c8dbacked Lightning62c1,861$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.7450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bec…129abacked Senators40c1,853$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…e7d4backed Lightning62c1,853$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Lightning1c1,795$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Senators38c1,700$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.9351044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Senators38c1,368$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.111,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Senators47c1,348$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7153,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Senators38c1,200$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.042653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lightning70c1,076$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.7240550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lightning77c1,040$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.419149.5%45 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6674…865ebacked Senators39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Senators38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked Senators24c856.08$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lightning19c645$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6958841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Lightning63c634.92$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004450%22 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Senators9c529.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Senators39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30530447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning61c499.96$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9797651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Lightning43c489.63$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.542653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Senators15c448.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.7929319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Lightning59c400$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.211435.1%40 W · 74 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning62c310.14$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9331546.3%146 W · 169 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Senators40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Senators37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18975946.6%354 W · 405 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Lightning62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18636652.7%193 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lightning61c290.65$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.337847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Senators39c280$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.874951.8%388 W · 361 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Senators40c265$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1596046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Senators39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4112742.5%54 W · 73 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Senators39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4112844.5%57 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…3598backed Lightning78c256.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001540%6 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Senators39c219.89$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2490…303dbacked Senators40c212.5$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.522051.4%113 W · 107 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Senators38c208.22$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.154349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Lightning61c203.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12414148.9%69 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lightning57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Lightning63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12670249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Senators25c171.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.94753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Senators23c164$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.753259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Senators14c150$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Lightning62c141$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning61c132.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.171,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7980…feadbacked Senators38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5821849.5%108 W · 110 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Senators39c127.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1530951.1%158 W · 151 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Senators39c121.54$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1428152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Senators37c119.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.591338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b5…41b3backed Senators14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.14728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Senators38c104.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.858740.2%35 W · 52 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Senators25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7526136%94 W · 167 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Senators39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Senators38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Senators38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6243944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Lightning62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6221245.8%97 W · 115 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Senators37c99.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6318750.3%94 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Senators25c99.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0917841%73 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3804…6136backed Senators39c92.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1829345.1%132 W · 161 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa8…7afbbacked Lightning61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26d…63f2backed Senators38c80.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.094015%6 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Senators38c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c24…8c06backed Lightning64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning63c77.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0557238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdee7…5e69backed Lightning63c77.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.662470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+45.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x51c2…2b13backed Senators38c77.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.842638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf587…4348backed Senators39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6d…ece3backed Lightning63c72.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Senators46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.876450.4%385 W · 379 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Senators38c69.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.421,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.791,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908f…14d1backed Senators39c56.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa72b…1b8fbacked Senators40c55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Lightning60c53.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1160042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning61c52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.721,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3b…68c5backed Senators39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51cb…b68ebacked Senators39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.282564%16 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Senators45c50.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7614151.8%73 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e0…3be6backed Senators40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd388…e017backed Lightning62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed89…647bbacked Senators40c47.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c7…628cbacked Senators39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5037…4630backed Senators39c35.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.91060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+50.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba49…a4a1backed Senators44c33.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.667338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Lightning62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Lightning62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…99eabacked Lightning62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4f…3e05backed Lightning62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c57…fca3backed Senators40c31.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.621258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.