Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb220d70c71a65ddf39feb97a6cf18175573c261a586470eaadba71a952ee8793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 50c | 53,946$26,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,973 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked No | 50c | 40,158$20,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,079.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 50c | 20,000$9,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,099.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 17,423$8,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,451.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 54c | 5,518$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.66 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked No | 51c | 5,075$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 49c | 3,100$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 47c | 2,365$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.1 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 52c | 1,522$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.71 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 71c | 1,131$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.72 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,104$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.08 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 49c | 905$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.37 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 51c | 899.98$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.99 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 49c | 809.63$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.43 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 49c | 600$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…3cc4backed Yes | 53c | 554.91$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…9eefbacked No | 49c | 554.9$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 14c | 507.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 56c | 468$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 48c | 443.73$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…1e9dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 46c | 353.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 55c | 325.44$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 49c | 316.32$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 314.56$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 21c | 245$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +8.7wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +1,305.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 46c | 109.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…03dbbacked Yes | 36c | 97.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 52c | 84.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 61c | 65.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…9008backed Yes | 52c | 57.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 51.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…3abfbacked Yes | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…3e05backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 32.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…fd32backed Yes | 55c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…79c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…b859backed Yes | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Lecce win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will Parma vs. Lecce end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.