Serie A · resolved market
Will Lecce win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3632292f4e7069cb7b946240d124b79279ddeaae1278ad9c40d42184818fed30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 1,112$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.66 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 1,081$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 47c | 949.83$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 52c | 793.05$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 643$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 599.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.77 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 21c | 550$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 79c | 504.96$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 21c | 436.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.04 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 39c | 402.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 52c | 384$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 57c | 257.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 221$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.99 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 46c | 215.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 21c | 214$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 80c | 197.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 114.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 97.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 56c | 47.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 78c | 21.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lecce win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Parma vs. Lecce end in a draw?No won
- Will Parma win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.