TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,131,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,172,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 793 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes42c29,814$12,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,422.8740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed No68c21,779$14,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,039.234755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c20,924$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.8819011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes7c20,611$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.171030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No74c17,207$12,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.48650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1178…be0dbacked Yes42c14,219$5,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,976.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No14c14,000$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,059.992623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes67c14,000$9,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,379.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No7c13,713$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,798.341643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+166.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No69c13,355$9,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,170.328815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed No7c13,291$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,320.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+111.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes50c12,452$6,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,230.184020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No8c11,481$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,573.862763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No16c10,456$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,800.114619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed No4c10,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6001100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes22c9,046$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes21c8,595$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.337238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f24…bfafbacked Yes20c8,471$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No4c7,761$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,463.196833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d09…3150backed No54c7,059$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed No69c6,811$4,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No70c6,420$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed No51c6,336$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.061540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked No64c6,324$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,304.271070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked No19c6,086$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,914.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+76.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd21a…51cbbacked Yes74c5,916$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No61c5,763$3,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No18c5,522$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.8910723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No48c5,349$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc813…44dabacked No50c5,078$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,513.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d38…b49cbacked No10c5,024$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+402.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed No16c5,000$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,201.75977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49b1…c280backed No74c4,890$3,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c4,804$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.6747938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed No10c4,238$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+237.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No62c4,207$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.5625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked No79c4,205$3,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.071060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfcc…12a6backed No55c4,187$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.52065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed No12c3,987$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+178.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No47c3,950$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.451241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No69c3,696$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.711181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+124.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes29c3,662$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.934641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No18c3,558$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.062733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed No54c3,450$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No44c3,381$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.893923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No61c3,366$2,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.973831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa03e…269bbacked No63c3,160$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.021060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c3,066$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.326291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed No15c3,051$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+126.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked No21c2,995$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No26c2,910$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.449435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed No10c2,865$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+92.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0fd8…372bbacked No19c2,848$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.74560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c2,832$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.2140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No60c2,829$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.162268.2%15 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No3c2,784$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.733145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc8…9f16backed No50c2,694$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…7e8dbacked Yes2c2,691$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No58c2,558$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.921957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes19c2,509$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed No34c2,473$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.694729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de7…4a85backed Yes6c2,471$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989f…4673backed No16c2,455$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+278.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes51c2,446$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.62387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No35c2,435$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.92040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed No79c2,363$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211e…35ddbacked No45c2,282$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.84560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed No7c2,239$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+397.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No51c2,212$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes77c2,209$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.214944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No5c2,122$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.952437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No15c2,008$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+549.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes7c2,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…8734backed No35c2,000$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed No75c2,000$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf19…dd2ebacked No68c1,988$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…1a88backed No5c1,902$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+534.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes10c1,840$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.232429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked Yes1c1,800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4552…0333backed No75c1,793$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.67944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a8…3193backed No68c1,773$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.323100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes59c1,772$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.95635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1921…dc3bbacked Yes28c1,760$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No18c1,748$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30f…f4ddbacked No59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc576…747abacked Yes6c1,690$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…a6a1backed No11c1,632$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+253.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d3…4333backed No62c1,609$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No58c1,606$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.045832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No27c1,546$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.331838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf97a…dd22backed Yes6c1,540$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes77c1,540$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.317222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No45c1,540$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.31225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed No65c1,532$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb045…9c46backed No76c1,519$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.481145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5e…6e50backed No66c1,509$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked No5c1,500$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No6c1,500$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+733.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes51c1,478$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.584316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.