TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01e7…89b4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT4729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.33
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.5%+$9.95
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+63.9%+$10.14
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$939Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.7%+$485.04
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.42
Grok 5 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$195.12
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$849Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+191.2%+$1,623.69
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.86
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$24.86
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75.97
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.42
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$144.58
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$116
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$407.38
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$382.13
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$49.91
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+525%+$233.18
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$485.68
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$176.57
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$343.5
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+172.7%+$380
Will Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$396.09
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$308.26
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$2,288.43
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$427.47
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.75
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$11.39
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$27.93
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.45
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$431Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$431
Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$520.11
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,386Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$2,386.17
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$380.09
Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.57
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.75
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Lee Sang-min in jail by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$806Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+67.8%+$546.13
Yoon in jail before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,553Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$1,127.52
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+163.7%+$797.76
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$132.91
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google dip to $310 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$92.25
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25%+$2.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$11.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple say "Streaming" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.