World Politics · resolved market
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf732bd37df7cfe40314ed25589bf9132468ad54e7d601dae69e8038b751990ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $478,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 67c | 78,367$52,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,647.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 68c | 51,546$35,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,303.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 18c | 39,926$7,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,373.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 25,182$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.78 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 56c | 23,241$12,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,311.31 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 44c | 22,318$9,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,460.79 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 20c | 14,467$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,573.34 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 9c | 11,263$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 11,013$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 32c | 10,131$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,927.86 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…2d05backed No | 45c | 7,631$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,214.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 5c | 7,013$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 49c | 6,964$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes | 44c | 6,509$2,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 18c | 5,984$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.66 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 70c | 5,351$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.46 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 49c | 5,042$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.84 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed Yes | 14c | 4,160$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.45 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 36c | 3,724$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0669…7345backed Yes | 67c | 3,608$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…e34cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,123$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…712abacked No | 37c | 2,949$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 40c | 2,875$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 78c | 2,617$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.58 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 78c | 2,546$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.59 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 20c | 2,480$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…469cbacked No | 43c | 2,352$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,058$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 46c | 2,057$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.81 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 1,910$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.32 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed No | 26c | 1,868$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked No | 47c | 1,642$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 34c | 1,447$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 52c | 1,362$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.38 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed No | 79c | 1,265$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 40c | 1,252$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.05 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked No | 18c | 1,012$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked No | 33c | 996.33$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 62c | 974.6$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 934.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 876.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed No | 32c | 872.04$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.43 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 812.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.05 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed No | 27c | 806.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…5031backed No | 43c | 806.69$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 789.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.41 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 46c | 769.17$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.45 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Yes | 27c | 767.45$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 55c | 750$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 28c | 745.37$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 20c | 733.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.09 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…5bcfbacked No | 74c | 710$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 49c | 700$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 52c | 692.07$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 15c | 686.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked No | 79c | 686.56$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8418…6b00backed No | 77c | 674.42$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 650$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.11 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 33c | 640$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.76 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…3e4ebacked No | 18c | 639.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed No | 50c | 596.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 55c | 593.14$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd299…4f7bbacked No | 37c | 582$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 29c | 560.04$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.94 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 50c | 536$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 51c | 486.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb604…75cfbacked No | 52c | 440$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 23c | 428.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 37c | 426.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 14c | 420$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 14c | 399.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…12eabacked Yes | 5c | 386.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…a03ebacked No | 29c | 372.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…d0f6backed No | 27c | 371.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…d195backed Yes | 14c | 369.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…e0d2backed Yes | 75c | 368.31$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 20c | 339.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 14c | 315.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.35 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 25c | 302.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.27 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 297.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 21c | 260.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…1aadbacked No | 19c | 259.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…2ba3backed No | 52c | 257.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 256.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 10c | 249.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 231$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.14 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 49c | 230.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…829ebacked No | 38c | 230$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 63c | 221.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…eec4backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 76c | 216.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…5d44backed Yes | 17c | 200.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?this page
- Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.