TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes59c28,485$16,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,744.292040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes69c14,431$9,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,952.652030%6 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes22c9,934$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.369613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed No46c9,231$4,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.958341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes66c7,702$5,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,097.592626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-60.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes50c7,563$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,794.194938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ac…ebacbacked No30c5,853$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,101.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes44c5,475$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.171625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed No30c5,008$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.381060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No78c4,918$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.9720538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes51c4,187$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.78330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No51c3,971$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes3c3,860$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c3,827$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.911,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed Yes8c3,544$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No52c3,079$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.974425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes10c3,004$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.3837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No40c2,923$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.553148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes42c2,523$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.965223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No38c2,504$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.379237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed Yes21c2,123$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.234540%18 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0d…e220backed No37c1,892$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f7…071cbacked No49c1,649$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No53c1,471$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No35c1,455$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes48c1,411$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.126726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72f4…3d96backed No61c1,329$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.614334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7059…9549backed Yes55c1,286$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.871060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4d…aaa4backed No39c1,264$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No40c1,256$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.352326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bd…bd07backed No40c1,125$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c1,097$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aeb…0583backed Yes39c1,095$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.321947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Yes26c1,062$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.23339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4fafbacked No30c1,011$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ed…3ae6backed No31c989.39$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes61c971.78$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.483228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No66c961.27$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.816741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7b…160dbacked No53c940.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes57c884.22$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed No35c844.93$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed No31c800.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.633537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf67c…2f87backed No33c768.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes54c752.56$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.447646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x126f…eeaabacked Yes67c743.38$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed No47c711.88$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.35817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No38c697.15$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked No59c690.4$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.07850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b63…8f36backed Yes73c683.13$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No66c679$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.255446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4407…0e24backed No75c669.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561b…ae78backed No78c640.62$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes60c625.71$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.561513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4f…c055backed Yes70c613.26$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf88…11a8backed No43c585.38$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.041266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No60c570.34$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.19560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316f…210abacked Yes3c523.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed No61c521.54$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed No70c500$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1522330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked No37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked No40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes45c470.16$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.623046.7%14 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked No47c466.39$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2461540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No64c456.92$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.714850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x892a…deccbacked No35c453.05$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+87.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32fe…219abacked No45c446.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No55c438.98$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.981241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes60c438.36$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.681540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+582.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…2ba3backed No61c411.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…0f90backed No40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402060%12 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No37c399.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes58c399.98$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.174555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No63c393.73$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.374959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd788…f375backed No58c390.69$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No55c386.18$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.659248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de1…e0debacked No40c382.85$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No38c373.69$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.773537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes44c371.29$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.244921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc6…81aabacked No55c369.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked No44c368.56$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+118.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes71c367.64$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.921546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed No69c360.81$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed No30c360.39$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.972433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb1…70b5backed No44c358.3$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No53c355.21$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.753141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No50c336.77$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ddc…066bbacked Yes61c329.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No30c326.17$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1e…b029backed No50c317.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4482…7082backed Yes63c316.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03eb…f52ebacked No43c305.05$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9c…fab1backed No36c304.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed No37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No53c263.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.81070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+79.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed No31c250$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.51060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+61.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed No53c245.84$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.362646.2%12 W · 14 L+5.7wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+116.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2819…34fcbacked Yes22c230.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.