World Politics · resolved market
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5726d34fa150583dacbfdddf17f625b5e30662bf4d2f329b888a13d98bd34022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 59c | 28,485$16,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,744.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 69c | 14,431$9,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,952.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 22c | 9,934$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.36 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 46c | 9,231$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,944.95 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 66c | 7,702$5,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,097.59 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 50c | 7,563$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,794.19 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked No | 30c | 5,853$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,101.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 44c | 5,475$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed No | 30c | 5,008$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 78c | 4,918$3,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.97 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 51c | 4,187$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.7 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 51c | 3,971$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked Yes | 3c | 3,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,827$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 8c | 3,544$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 52c | 3,079$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.97 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,004$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 40c | 2,923$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 42c | 2,523$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.96 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 38c | 2,504$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.37 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed Yes | 21c | 2,123$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed No | 37c | 1,892$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked No | 49c | 1,649$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 53c | 1,471$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 35c | 1,455$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 48c | 1,411$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.12 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 61c | 1,329$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.61 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 55c | 1,286$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…aaa4backed No | 39c | 1,264$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 40c | 1,256$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…bd07backed No | 40c | 1,125$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 1,097$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…0583backed Yes | 39c | 1,095$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 26c | 1,062$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked No | 30c | 1,011$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…3ae6backed No | 31c | 989.39$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 61c | 971.78$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.48 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 66c | 961.27$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…160dbacked No | 53c | 940.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed Yes | 57c | 884.22$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed No | 35c | 844.93$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 31c | 800.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2f87backed No | 33c | 768.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 54c | 752.56$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.44 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 67c | 743.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed No | 47c | 711.88$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.3 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 38c | 697.15$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 59c | 690.4$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…8f36backed Yes | 73c | 683.13$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 66c | 679$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…0e24backed No | 75c | 669.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…ae78backed No | 78c | 640.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 60c | 625.71$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…c055backed Yes | 70c | 613.26$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…2ed0backed No | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed No | 43c | 585.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 60c | 570.34$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 3c | 523.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 61c | 521.54$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed No | 70c | 500$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 45c | 470.16$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked No | 47c | 466.39$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 64c | 456.92$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…deccbacked No | 35c | 453.05$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…219abacked No | 45c | 446.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 55c | 438.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked Yes | 60c | 438.36$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +582.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…2ba3backed No | 61c | 411.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…0f90backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 37c | 399.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 58c | 399.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 393.73$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed No | 58c | 390.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 55c | 386.18$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.65 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e0debacked No | 40c | 382.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 38c | 373.69$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 44c | 371.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…81aabacked No | 55c | 369.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked No | 44c | 368.56$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 71c | 367.64$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 69c | 360.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 30c | 360.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb1…70b5backed No | 44c | 358.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 53c | 355.21$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 50c | 336.77$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked Yes | 61c | 329.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 30c | 326.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…b029backed No | 50c | 317.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…7082backed Yes | 63c | 316.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…f52ebacked No | 43c | 305.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…fab1backed No | 36c | 304.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 53c | 263.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 53c | 245.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 22c | 230.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?this page
- Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.