TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe005…14fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst F1 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$350.4
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$82.51
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$557
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$310
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$368
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,032Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+26.8%+$1,350.3
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+37%+$108
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$26.48
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$120.38
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$214.15
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+334.8%+$195.1
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$450
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$953Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$953
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,129Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.8%+$571
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+525%+$840
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,587Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$913
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+29.9%+$115
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$330
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+39.2%+$294.9
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$124.43
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+143.9%+$2,359.99
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+53.4%+$696
Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+26.6%+$210
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$208
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,900
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,089.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$46.71
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,576Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,576.19
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+177%+$117.04
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,999Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49%+$978.53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13,017Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$7,446.1
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,383.89
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$285
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+133.9%+$757.62
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+150%+$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$64.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$205.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.