F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2039605466c73ef1dc4dceb1a5da2c5c9f26193e1ba52e41f18c3419f2a78923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,835$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 3,795$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.37 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,785$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,170$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d68…f0bebacked Yes | 15c | 661.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes | 17c | 595.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…1187backed Yes | 8c | 497.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 5c | 322.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 13c | 148.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 10c | 134.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…f975backed Yes | 15c | 134.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 10c | 134.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 12c | 126.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…ba27backed Yes | 11c | 90.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…4914backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 62c | 16.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.