AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,799,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,839,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,799,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 171,959$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.96 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 13c | 78,786$10,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,209.63 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 4c | 64,796$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.64 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 9c | 62,169$5,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,592.06 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…ae61backed Yes | 11c | 48,669$5,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,161.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 47,877$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.36 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 12c | 46,584$5,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,768.63 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 39,674$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.75 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb181…daf2backed Yes | 16c | 36,179$5,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,769.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 35,606$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.11 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 0c | 34,800$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 31,013$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.54 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…cc27backed Yes | 4c | 30,787$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 0c | 29,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 21c | 28,063$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 10c | 24,795$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.19 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 23,483$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.56 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 33c | 23,059$7,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,559.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 6c | 22,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…a13fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 9c | 18,438$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 28c | 17,543$4,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,916.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 3c | 17,096$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +310.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…bb89backed Yes | 15c | 15,480$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 17c | 13,869$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.79 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…d05ebacked Yes | 16c | 13,286$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 12,957$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.99 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,864$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…cdf5backed Yes | 3c | 12,735$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 7c | 12,004$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 6c | 11,789$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.59 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 13c | 11,342$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.47 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes | 14c | 11,080$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 19c | 11,051$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.53 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…e6e6backed Yes | 9c | 10,935$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…79fcbacked Yes | 14c | 10,652$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 8c | 10,606$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.94 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f35ebacked Yes | 29c | 10,472$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…2372backed Yes | 9c | 10,431$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 9c | 10,249$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.73 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…be55backed Yes | 9c | 10,100$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…d683backed No | 79c | 10,041$7,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…7658backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b3…6661backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 8c | 9,552$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.1 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…6b44backed Yes | 9c | 9,334$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 9,105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes | 10c | 9,065$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 21c | 9,031$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 8,648$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.18 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…f9b0backed Yes | 24c | 8,401$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…70fdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 24c | 8,179$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…7e80backed Yes | 10c | 7,751$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…43e3backed Yes | 11c | 7,381$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…e12dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,380$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,318$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.55 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…7cb6backed Yes | 10c | 7,090$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 14c | 7,071$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.53 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,958$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 23c | 6,938$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 6,504$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.79 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 6,480$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.49 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 5,997$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.57 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…7251backed Yes | 5c | 5,995$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…0973backed Yes | 2c | 5,854$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,710$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes | 8c | 5,570$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,567$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.65 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…e6cdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,533$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…0259backed Yes | 18c | 5,361$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,126$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.27 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…36c7backed Yes | 2c | 5,074$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0299backed Yes | 15c | 5,056$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…bdc4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…e54abacked Yes | 2c | 4,890$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,838$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 4,805$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9049…de85backed Yes | 31c | 4,768$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…a0bcbacked Yes | 16c | 4,753$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,678$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50a…efafbacked Yes | 14c | 4,634$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…23ebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,549$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,436$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,414$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 13c | 4,385$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.48 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…a115backed Yes | 3c | 4,384$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,355$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…e839backed Yes | 23c | 4,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 4,347$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 4,328$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…85eabacked Yes | 2c | 4,300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…f9bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,281$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…e651backed Yes | 20c | 4,275$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 4,258$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 0c | 4,098$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.