AI · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeefdfb2a32f7304c9f07a7a752731529b6b28085c02cc711d9714f9f0511fc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,870,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,223,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,870,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 438,659$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.66 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 0c | 422,480$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.83 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 71,997$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 70,540$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 0c | 49,995$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa8…09b0backed Yes | 0c | 48,479$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…45a3backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…b0a1backed Yes | 0c | 31,228$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e8abacked Yes | 0c | 31,072$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…2ef2backed Yes | 0c | 22,522$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…874bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,770$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…9646backed Yes | 0c | 9,698$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 0c | 9,083$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…f76fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,040$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,272$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,893$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,585$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73fa…1ba2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 1c | 4,859$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc65…6650backed Yes | 0c | 3,997$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…2036backed Yes | 0c | 3,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,997$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…3d46backed Yes | 0c | 2,795$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.