AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,632,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,658,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,632,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 190,851$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.81 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…6bc0backed Yes | 6c | 116,124$6,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 94,322$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.97 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 63,840$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.83 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 56,621$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 53,197$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.26 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…3c81backed Yes | 6c | 45,216$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 40,134$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.53 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 1c | 32,306$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 1c | 29,921$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 28,392$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…3284backed Yes | 2c | 26,652$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,300$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.4 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 20,046$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.38 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 17,693$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes | 2c | 17,546$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes | 2c | 17,066$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 0c | 16,687$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…0259backed Yes | 10c | 16,393$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…a13fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 9c | 14,023$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked Yes | 3c | 13,809$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…6debbacked Yes | 0c | 13,684$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 12,805$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.83 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 12,397$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ff…2272backed Yes | 1c | 12,047$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 11,459$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.04 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 10,085$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.13 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…be55backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 9,856$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.93 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 3c | 9,561$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.37 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…6ee4backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 5c | 9,172$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…b1febacked Yes | 1c | 9,041$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…f00dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…478cbacked Yes | 3c | 8,980$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…6d47backed Yes | 1c | 8,949$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…48d1backed Yes | 13c | 8,561$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…27d2backed Yes | 6c | 8,267$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…c6e3backed Yes | 2c | 8,231$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 2c | 8,030$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.96 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 4c | 7,982$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…2d58backed Yes | 2c | 7,960$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 5c | 7,791$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 7,746$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,653$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.09 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,516$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…7d1fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,428$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,404$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.92 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,257$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…880abacked Yes | 1c | 7,184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 6c | 7,108$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…607ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,089$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…2d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…2847backed Yes | 7c | 6,972$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a1b0backed Yes | 0c | 6,763$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes | 12c | 6,604$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…bfe6backed Yes | 3c | 6,236$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…7f57backed Yes | 11c | 6,146$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…c374backed Yes | 4c | 6,044$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…d680backed Yes | 3c | 6,013$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 6c | 5,957$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 4c | 5,750$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…c177backed Yes | 1c | 5,665$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 1c | 5,655$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…b59bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 5,555$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…71f6backed Yes | 1c | 5,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…9dc8backed Yes | 2c | 5,387$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 0c | 5,382$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 11c | 5,377$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 5,295$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.98 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 8c | 5,226$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…9c61backed Yes | 4c | 5,177$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 1c | 5,097$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 1c | 5,084$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…6979backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 0c | 4,838$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…fef6backed Yes | 1c | 4,774$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,746$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed Yes | 2c | 4,720$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c45…31c4backed Yes | 2c | 4,519$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes | 3c | 4,316$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 2c | 4,232$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…2843backed Yes | 1c | 4,077$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 9c | 4,054$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 1c | 4,031$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 1c | 4,019$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…5976backed Yes | 4c | 3,935$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,918$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.