AI · resolved market
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,201,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,733,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,201,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,947 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 8c | 182,344$14,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,445.74 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 24c | 107,259$25,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,402.73 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed No | 20c | 93,941$18,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,835.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 73c | 79,815$58,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,760.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20db…63ccbacked No | 72c | 52,573$37,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,852.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…cd21backed Yes | 28c | 52,573$14,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,852.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 48,585$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.87 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 10c | 40,134$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.49 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 16c | 39,000$6,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,329.93 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 77c | 36,421$27,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,430.51 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 3c | 32,312$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…2393backed No | 59c | 28,825$17,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,006.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…1c86backed Yes | 41c | 28,825$11,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,006.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 79c | 28,545$22,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,945.4 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 25,848$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.5 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 78c | 22,536$17,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,911.7 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 77c | 20,556$15,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,732.26 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…6bc0backed No | 16c | 20,375$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 19,903$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.21 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 2c | 18,117$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.38 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f348backed No | 24c | 15,941$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a95…2d06backed Yes | 73c | 15,162$11,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,147.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 15,000$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 10c | 15,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 12c | 14,720$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.58 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…c374backed No | 17c | 14,551$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 71c | 14,281$10,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,206.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 79c | 14,192$11,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.19 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 4c | 13,375$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 78c | 12,503$9,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…64d0backed No | 14c | 11,917$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…c934backed No | 6c | 11,526$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed No | 23c | 11,124$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 14c | 10,956$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.03 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38b1…d0fabacked No | 5c | 10,377$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 79c | 10,330$8,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.23 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 79c | 10,302$8,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…570fbacked No | 5c | 10,139$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 75c | 10,100$7,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 3c | 10,095$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 74c | 10,000$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 0c | 9,853$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 80c | 9,605$7,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…4a07backed Yes | 77c | 9,550$7,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 79c | 9,432$7,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 9,400$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.99 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed No | 24c | 9,072$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 70c | 9,000$6,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 8,529$6,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.92 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 16c | 8,451$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.35 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…fa82backed No | 4c | 8,390$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 69c | 8,291$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…0a2fbacked Yes | 74c | 8,265$6,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…0ca3backed No | 25c | 8,176$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 74c | 8,144$6,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.04 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 8,100$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.05 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes | 80c | 7,958$6,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.68 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…e00bbacked No | 16c | 7,750$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 76c | 7,492$5,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.84 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 23c | 7,371$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…23ebbacked No | 3c | 7,230$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…cdf5backed No | 7c | 7,096$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 70c | 7,069$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.71 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 38c | 6,752$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182.46 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 74c | 6,718$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.35 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc16…af7dbacked No | 21c | 6,500$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 6,322$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…59dcbacked Yes | 80c | 6,268$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed No | 2c | 6,124$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 18c | 5,893$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.53 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…3265backed No | 7c | 5,546$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381b…0e2ebacked No | 20c | 5,398$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…01cebacked No | 3c | 5,369$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 77c | 5,350$4,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 28c | 5,259$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.91 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 5,226$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 12c | 5,066$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.47 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…5fcabacked Yes | 48c | 5,057$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 78c | 4,723$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…51dfbacked No | 22c | 4,545$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 4,531$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…0206backed No | 26c | 4,526$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…b53cbacked No | 1c | 4,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 73c | 4,250$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 69c | 4,172$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.99 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…460ebacked No | 14c | 4,148$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 63c | 4,095$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.58 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 4,094$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.83 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 76c | 3,979$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.21 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 71c | 3,907$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.01 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…bd4ebacked No | 2c | 3,889$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 6c | 3,832$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.91 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 73c | 3,815$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…7c0dbacked No | 4c | 3,803$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 28c | 3,754$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…8393backed No | 2c | 3,741$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed No | 7c | 3,738$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.84 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 5c | 3,699$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.05 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed No | 7c | 3,663$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 80c | 3,656$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.